The 96.2% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 stems primarily from the Justice Department’s closure of its criminal probe into the Federal Reserve chair in April 2026, after a federal judge ruled prosecutors had produced essentially no evidence of wrongdoing related to headquarters renovations or congressional testimony. With the inquiry shifted to the Fed’s inspector general and no subsequent charges or active cases, traders view incarceration in the remaining months of 2026 as implausible for an official with no criminal record or ongoing legal exposure. This pricing aligns with historical precedent for senior policymakers, where political pressure alone has not produced imprisonment absent substantiated indictments. Residual tail risks include an unexpected reopening of scrutiny or novel allegations, though such scenarios would require new evidence and face substantial procedural and institutional hurdles before any custodial outcome.