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Ekonomiya·Mga Rate Ng Fed

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

icon for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Ekonomiya·Mga Rate Ng Fed

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

Sep 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Sep 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

$16,257 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$16,257 Vol.

Polymarket

5.10%

$2,606 Vol.

3%

5.05%

$1,087 Vol.

8%

5.00%

$1,365 Vol.

15%

4.97%

$1,444 Vol.

17%

4.94%

$1,249 Vol.

23%

4.91%

$1,759 Vol.

29%

4.88%

$1,527 Vol.

44%

4.85%

$1,226 Vol.

75%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.84% on September 9, 2026—its highest level since late 2023—after Treasury’s $6 billion longer-dated buyback fell short of some expectations and amid elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel from Middle East conflict. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing 3.7% PCE inflation and questioning the durability of recent disinflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a September FOMC rate hike above 50%. Strong demand at the $39 billion 10-year auction (high yield 4.834%, bid-to-cover 2.71) provided modest relief, yet resilient growth, sticky core inflation, and higher term-premium expectations continue to support elevated yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision, upcoming PPI and CPI releases, and any escalation in energy markets that could push the monthly high beyond current levels.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$16,257
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.84% on September 9, 2026—its highest level since late 2023—after Treasury’s $6 billion longer-dated buyback fell short of some expectations and amid elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel from Middle East conflict. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing 3.7% PCE inflation and questioning the durability of recent disinflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a September FOMC rate hike above 50%. Strong demand at the $39 billion 10-year auction (high yield 4.834%, bid-to-cover 2.71) provided modest relief, yet resilient growth, sticky core inflation, and higher term-premium expectations continue to support elevated yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision, upcoming PPI and CPI releases, and any escalation in energy markets that could push the monthly high beyond current levels.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$16,257
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Kaugnay

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Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in September?

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Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.64% in September?

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 9 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "4.82%" sa 100%, sinusundan ng "4.85%" sa 75%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 100¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?" ay naka-generate ng $16.3K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Sep 2, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?," i-browse ang 9 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?" ay "4.82%" sa 100%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "4.85%" sa 75%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.