Recent economic data releases, including the latest CPI and labor market reports, have left traders pricing in a highly uncertain path for FOMC rate decisions through December, with no single sequence exceeding 30% implied probability. Mixed inflation readings near target levels alongside resilient employment figures have widened the range of plausible outcomes, from sustained pauses to sequences involving hikes. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing debate over whether cooling growth or persistent price pressures will dominate policy deliberations at upcoming meetings. Key upcoming data prints and the September FOMC statement will likely narrow these probabilities as participants reassess the balance of risks in real time.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updatePause–Pause–Pause 30%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Hike–Pause–Hike 11%
$16,134 Vol.
$16,134 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
30%
Pause–Hike–Hike
8%
Pause–Hike–Pause
6%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Hike–Pause–Hike 11%
$16,134 Vol.
$16,134 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$329 Vol.
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$569 Vol.
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$231 Vol.
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$474 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$623 Vol.
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$11,754 Vol.
30%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$914 Vol.
8%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$946 Vol.
6%
Other
$294 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases, including the latest CPI and labor market reports, have left traders pricing in a highly uncertain path for FOMC rate decisions through December, with no single sequence exceeding 30% implied probability. Mixed inflation readings near target levels alongside resilient employment figures have widened the range of plausible outcomes, from sustained pauses to sequences involving hikes. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing debate over whether cooling growth or persistent price pressures will dominate policy deliberations at upcoming meetings. Key upcoming data prints and the September FOMC statement will likely narrow these probabilities as participants reassess the balance of risks in real time.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$16,134Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases, including the latest CPI and labor market reports, have left traders pricing in a highly uncertain path for FOMC rate decisions through December, with no single sequence exceeding 30% implied probability. Mixed inflation readings near target levels alongside resilient employment figures have widened the range of plausible outcomes, from sustained pauses to sequences involving hikes. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing debate over whether cooling growth or persistent price pressures will dominate policy deliberations at upcoming meetings. Key upcoming data prints and the September FOMC statement will likely narrow these probabilities as participants reassess the balance of risks in real time.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$16,134Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data releases, including the latest CPI and labor market reports, have left traders pricing in a highly uncertain path for FOMC rate decisions through December, with no single sequence exceeding 30% implied probability. Mixed inflation readings near target levels alongside resilient employment figures have widened the range of plausible outcomes, from sustained pauses to sequences involving hikes. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing debate over whether cooling growth or persistent price pressures will dominate policy deliberations at upcoming meetings. Key upcoming data prints and the September FOMC statement will likely narrow these probabilities as participants reassess the balance of risks in real time.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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