Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to a Hike-Pause-Hike sequence for Federal Reserve decisions from September through December 2026, driven primarily by October inflation and labor market data showing sticky core CPI alongside cooling but resilient employment trends. These releases have reinforced market-implied odds for an initial rate increase to address persistent price pressures, followed by a pause to assess transmission effects, then a subsequent adjustment aligned with the FOMC’s data-dependent stance. Treasury yields and fed funds futures have priced in a similar path, while the 20.5% probability on Hike-Pause-Pause reflects uncertainty around the final meeting. Key upcoming catalysts include the November CPI release and December FOMC statement, which could alter positioning if they deviate from current consensus estimates.