Skip to main content

Para mag-trade sa US, pumunta sa polymarket.us

icon for How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Ekonomiya·Mga Rate Ng Fed

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Ekonomiya·Mga Rate Ng Fed

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

BAGO
Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$121 Vol.

Polymarket

Below 5.20%

$0 Vol.

80%

Below 5.15%

$0 Vol.

72%

Below 5.10%

$60 Vol.

63%

Below 5.05%

$0 Vol.

54%

Below 5.00%

$0 Vol.

46%

Below 4.95%

$0 Vol.

41%

Below 4.90%

$61 Vol.

35%

Below 4.80%

$0 Vol.

22%

Below 4.60%

$0 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.28-5.30%, faces upward pressure from elevated federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, heavy issuance to fund large deficits, and competing demand from AI-driven corporate borrowing. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing sticky PCE inflation around 3.7% and questioning forward guidance, combined with August's stronger-than-expected jobs report, have boosted odds of a September FOMC rate hike to about 60%. These factors have lifted real yields and term premia, with the yield near its highest levels since 2007. Upcoming CPI and PPI releases this week, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term expectations, while fiscal sustainability and inflation trends will influence how low yields can fall before year-end 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$121
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.28-5.30%, faces upward pressure from elevated federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, heavy issuance to fund large deficits, and competing demand from AI-driven corporate borrowing. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing sticky PCE inflation around 3.7% and questioning forward guidance, combined with August's stronger-than-expected jobs report, have boosted odds of a September FOMC rate hike to about 60%. These factors have lifted real yields and term premia, with the yield near its highest levels since 2007. Upcoming CPI and PPI releases this week, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term expectations, while fiscal sustainability and inflation trends will influence how low yields can fall before year-end 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$121
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Kaugnay

icon for Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.24% in September?

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.24% in September?

74%
icon for Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?

72%
icon for Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in September?

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in September?

86%

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 9 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Below 5.20%" sa 80%, sinusundan ng "Below 5.15%" sa 72%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 80¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 80% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Sep 2, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?," i-browse ang 9 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" ay "Below 5.20%" sa 80%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 80% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Below 5.15%" sa 72%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.