Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are the main forces lifting the market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026 to 73.5%. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, while PCE inflation printed 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including his Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing “work to do” on inflation, have reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will tighten policy at the September 15-16 meeting or later this year. Markets currently price roughly 58% odds of a 25-basis-point move next week, with two-year Treasury yields and the dollar reflecting the upward shift in the rate path. The September 11 CPI release and FOMC dot plot revisions remain key near-term catalysts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOo
74% tsansa
$8,781,019 Vol.
$8,781,019 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
Oo
74% tsansa
$8,781,019 Vol.
$8,781,019 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are the main forces lifting the market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026 to 73.5%. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, while PCE inflation printed 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including his Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing “work to do” on inflation, have reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will tighten policy at the September 15-16 meeting or later this year. Markets currently price roughly 58% odds of a 25-basis-point move next week, with two-year Treasury yields and the dollar reflecting the upward shift in the rate path. The September 11 CPI release and FOMC dot plot revisions remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,781,019Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are the main forces lifting the market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026 to 73.5%. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, while PCE inflation printed 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including his Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing “work to do” on inflation, have reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will tighten policy at the September 15-16 meeting or later this year. Markets currently price roughly 58% odds of a 25-basis-point move next week, with two-year Treasury yields and the dollar reflecting the upward shift in the rate path. The September 11 CPI release and FOMC dot plot revisions remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,781,019Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are the main forces lifting the market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026 to 73.5%. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, while PCE inflation printed 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including his Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing “work to do” on inflation, have reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will tighten policy at the September 15-16 meeting or later this year. Markets currently price roughly 58% odds of a 25-basis-point move next week, with two-year Treasury yields and the dollar reflecting the upward shift in the rate path. The September 11 CPI release and FOMC dot plot revisions remain key near-term catalysts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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