Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-preference intentions for the District Federal's two Senate seats at 21-26 percent, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay within margins of error at 14-18 percent. The two-vote system and split partisan alignments—Bia Kicis and Michelle Bolsonaro backed by the same PL ticket versus Leila and Erika Kokay aligned with the Lula coalition—drive heavy emphasis on second-choice preferences, where Bia has shown strength in recent surveys. High undecided shares near 10-20 percent and limited differentiation among the trailing trio sustain tight trader pricing for the October 4 outcome, with further late-September polling or campaign events likely to influence separation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBia Kicis 43.5%
Leila do Vôlei 35%
Erika Kokay 4.0%
Michelle Bolsonaro 1.5%
$44,242 Vol.
$44,242 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Bia Kicis
40%
Leila do Vôlei
31%
Erika Kokay
4%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Marley
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Bia Kicis 43.5%
Leila do Vôlei 35%
Erika Kokay 4.0%
Michelle Bolsonaro 1.5%
$44,242 Vol.
$44,242 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Bia Kicis
$10,950 Vol.
40%
Leila do Vôlei
$15,367 Vol.
31%
Erika Kokay
$7,037 Vol.
4%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$4,989 Vol.
1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
David Horn
$2,060 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$546 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-preference intentions for the District Federal's two Senate seats at 21-26 percent, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay within margins of error at 14-18 percent. The two-vote system and split partisan alignments—Bia Kicis and Michelle Bolsonaro backed by the same PL ticket versus Leila and Erika Kokay aligned with the Lula coalition—drive heavy emphasis on second-choice preferences, where Bia has shown strength in recent surveys. High undecided shares near 10-20 percent and limited differentiation among the trailing trio sustain tight trader pricing for the October 4 outcome, with further late-September polling or campaign events likely to influence separation.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$44,242Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-preference intentions for the District Federal's two Senate seats at 21-26 percent, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay within margins of error at 14-18 percent. The two-vote system and split partisan alignments—Bia Kicis and Michelle Bolsonaro backed by the same PL ticket versus Leila and Erika Kokay aligned with the Lula coalition—drive heavy emphasis on second-choice preferences, where Bia has shown strength in recent surveys. High undecided shares near 10-20 percent and limited differentiation among the trailing trio sustain tight trader pricing for the October 4 outcome, with further late-September polling or campaign events likely to influence separation.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$44,242Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-preference intentions for the District Federal's two Senate seats at 21-26 percent, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay within margins of error at 14-18 percent. The two-vote system and split partisan alignments—Bia Kicis and Michelle Bolsonaro backed by the same PL ticket versus Leila and Erika Kokay aligned with the Lula coalition—drive heavy emphasis on second-choice preferences, where Bia has shown strength in recent surveys. High undecided shares near 10-20 percent and limited differentiation among the trailing trio sustain tight trader pricing for the October 4 outcome, with further late-September polling or campaign events likely to influence separation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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