**Lula has not confirmed participation in any remaining pre-first-round presidential debates scheduled for September 27 (Record) or October 1 (Globo), consistent with his campaign’s initial strategy of limiting exposure ahead of the October 4 vote.** The September 14 multi-outlet debate was cancelled after neither Lula nor main rival Flávio Bolsonaro responded by the September 7 deadline, following their joint absence from the August 23 Band debate. Lula has publicly stated he will assess debate formats and avoid events he views as unproductive or focused on personal attacks rather than substantive issues. Recent polling showing Flávio closing the gap or leading in some second-round scenarios has prompted internal PT discussion about a possible shift to allow Lula to project strength and counter narratives, yet allies remain divided and no confirmation has emerged. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome as the more likely path given the pattern of non-participation and unresolved internal strategy.