Recent El Niño development, with models projecting strong intensity peaking September–November 2026, drives uncertainty in Minas Gerais drought outcomes during the critical coffee flowering window. This phase typically requires timely rainfall onset after the dry season to support soil moisture recharge and bud formation; El Niño teleconnections often produce irregular or delayed precipitation patterns alongside elevated temperatures that heighten evapotranspiration stress. Recent June–July unseasonal rains replenished reservoirs and eased prior deficits, yet INMET outlooks show variable September accumulations across southern and central regions, with some ensembles indicating below-normal totals through October. These factors sustain a broad distribution of implied probabilities across severity thresholds, as small shifts in rainfall timing or model consensus could alter peak drought extent measured by standard indices.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updatePeak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?
Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?
40% to 59.99% 27%
20% to 39.99% 20%
5% to 19.99% 16%
Under 5% 14%
BAGO
BAGO
Apr 30, 2027
Under 5%
14%
5% to 19.99%
16%
20% to 39.99%
20%
40% to 59.99%
27%
60% or more
14%
40% to 59.99% 27%
20% to 39.99% 20%
5% to 19.99% 16%
Under 5% 14%
BAGO
BAGO
Apr 30, 2027
Under 5%
$32 Vol.
14%
5% to 19.99%
$0 Vol.
16%
20% to 39.99%
$0 Vol.
20%
40% to 59.99%
$0 Vol.
27%
60% or more
$206 Vol.
14%
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.Recent El Niño development, with models projecting strong intensity peaking September–November 2026, drives uncertainty in Minas Gerais drought outcomes during the critical coffee flowering window. This phase typically requires timely rainfall onset after the dry season to support soil moisture recharge and bud formation; El Niño teleconnections often produce irregular or delayed precipitation patterns alongside elevated temperatures that heighten evapotranspiration stress. Recent June–July unseasonal rains replenished reservoirs and eased prior deficits, yet INMET outlooks show variable September accumulations across southern and central regions, with some ensembles indicating below-normal totals through October. These factors sustain a broad distribution of implied probabilities across severity thresholds, as small shifts in rainfall timing or model consensus could alter peak drought extent measured by standard indices.
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Volume
$239Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolution Source
https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.Recent El Niño development, with models projecting strong intensity peaking September–November 2026, drives uncertainty in Minas Gerais drought outcomes during the critical coffee flowering window. This phase typically requires timely rainfall onset after the dry season to support soil moisture recharge and bud formation; El Niño teleconnections often produce irregular or delayed precipitation patterns alongside elevated temperatures that heighten evapotranspiration stress. Recent June–July unseasonal rains replenished reservoirs and eased prior deficits, yet INMET outlooks show variable September accumulations across southern and central regions, with some ensembles indicating below-normal totals through October. These factors sustain a broad distribution of implied probabilities across severity thresholds, as small shifts in rainfall timing or model consensus could alter peak drought extent measured by standard indices.
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
Volume
$239Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolution Source
https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño development, with models projecting strong intensity peaking September–November 2026, drives uncertainty in Minas Gerais drought outcomes during the critical coffee flowering window. This phase typically requires timely rainfall onset after the dry season to support soil moisture recharge and bud formation; El Niño teleconnections often produce irregular or delayed precipitation patterns alongside elevated temperatures that heighten evapotranspiration stress. Recent June–July unseasonal rains replenished reservoirs and eased prior deficits, yet INMET outlooks show variable September accumulations across southern and central regions, with some ensembles indicating below-normal totals through October. These factors sustain a broad distribution of implied probabilities across severity thresholds, as small shifts in rainfall timing or model consensus could alter peak drought extent measured by standard indices.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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