Trader consensus on a 97.8% implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 rests on the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak remaining regionally contained despite rapid early growth. As of mid-September 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported over 7,600 confirmed cases and roughly 3,680 deaths across multiple provinces, with limited exported cases in Uganda and France showing no sustained community transmission. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC indicates transmission depends on direct contact with bodily fluids of symptomatic patients, a barrier that has historically limited Ebola to focal outbreaks rather than global spread. Response efforts, including contact tracing and targeted vaccination of health workers, continue amid challenges like conflict zones, though some provinces show declining daily incidence. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected superspreader events or viral adaptation enabling efficient respiratory transmission before containment scales.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
2% tsansa
$765,921 Vol.
$765,921 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% tsansa
$765,921 Vol.
$765,921 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 97.8% implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 rests on the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak remaining regionally contained despite rapid early growth. As of mid-September 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported over 7,600 confirmed cases and roughly 3,680 deaths across multiple provinces, with limited exported cases in Uganda and France showing no sustained community transmission. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC indicates transmission depends on direct contact with bodily fluids of symptomatic patients, a barrier that has historically limited Ebola to focal outbreaks rather than global spread. Response efforts, including contact tracing and targeted vaccination of health workers, continue amid challenges like conflict zones, though some provinces show declining daily incidence. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected superspreader events or viral adaptation enabling efficient respiratory transmission before containment scales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$765,921Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 97.8% implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 rests on the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak remaining regionally contained despite rapid early growth. As of mid-September 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported over 7,600 confirmed cases and roughly 3,680 deaths across multiple provinces, with limited exported cases in Uganda and France showing no sustained community transmission. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC indicates transmission depends on direct contact with bodily fluids of symptomatic patients, a barrier that has historically limited Ebola to focal outbreaks rather than global spread. Response efforts, including contact tracing and targeted vaccination of health workers, continue amid challenges like conflict zones, though some provinces show declining daily incidence. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected superspreader events or viral adaptation enabling efficient respiratory transmission before containment scales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$765,921Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 97.8% implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 rests on the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak remaining regionally contained despite rapid early growth. As of mid-September 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported over 7,600 confirmed cases and roughly 3,680 deaths across multiple provinces, with limited exported cases in Uganda and France showing no sustained community transmission. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC indicates transmission depends on direct contact with bodily fluids of symptomatic patients, a barrier that has historically limited Ebola to focal outbreaks rather than global spread. Response efforts, including contact tracing and targeted vaccination of health workers, continue amid challenges like conflict zones, though some provinces show declining daily incidence. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected superspreader events or viral adaptation enabling efficient respiratory transmission before containment scales.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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