**Trader consensus for Arkansas U.S. Senate general election turnout on November 3, 2026, centers on the 825K-900K range (49.5% probability) because the contest between incumbent Republican Tom Cotton and Democrat Hallie Shoffner remains a low-engagement, solidly Republican race.** Recent polling averages show Cotton ahead by roughly 8-11 points, consistent with the state's 2024 presidential margin and historical patterns for safe seats. Arkansas has among the nation's lowest voter registration and participation rates, and midterm Senate elections without competitive statewide dynamics or major ballot measures typically produce turnout in this band. Primary participation was modest, with limited Democratic momentum offsetting reduced Republican primary interest compared to prior cycles. Upcoming candidate debates and standard get-out-the-vote efforts have not yet generated notable shifts in engagement or early voting indicators that would push totals higher. The low probabilities on sub-750K or 1.05M+ outcomes reflect the absence of unusual weather, scandals, or national events that historically alter participation in the final weeks. Resolution will use certified totals from the Arkansas Secretary of State.