The non-competitive nature of Vermont’s 2026 gubernatorial contest, with Republican incumbent Phil Scott holding double-digit leads over Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo in available polling and forecasts projecting a wide margin, has anchored trader expectations around mid-range turnout levels. With roughly 500,000 registered voters, recent general elections have produced between 290,000 and 370,000 ballots; the August 11 primaries drew modest participation near 22 percent of registrants, concentrated in the Democratic contest won by Janoo. Absent major statewide issues or tight races to drive mobilization in the final weeks before November 3, the market’s leading 275K-300K bracket reflects this baseline participation pattern tempered by limited general-election enthusiasm. Late developments such as unexpected campaign spending surges or weather on Election Day could still shift totals within the broader historical band.