Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop surges, or blockade enforcement in recent weeks. Taiwan’s September 18 joint drills with missiles and attack drones, monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle, fit established patterns of routine pressure rather than imminent conflict. Beijing’s focus remains on maritime surveys, air and sea patrols, and diplomatic warnings ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, where arms sales and Taiwan feature prominently. Official assessments continue to note shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army landing and sustainment capacity for a full-scale operation this year. A sudden diplomatic rupture or undetected force posture shift before month-end could still influence outcomes, though such developments have historically required extended preparation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
<1% вероятность
$2,159,349 Объем
$2,159,349 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
$2,159,349 Объем
$2,159,349 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop surges, or blockade enforcement in recent weeks. Taiwan’s September 18 joint drills with missiles and attack drones, monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle, fit established patterns of routine pressure rather than imminent conflict. Beijing’s focus remains on maritime surveys, air and sea patrols, and diplomatic warnings ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, where arms sales and Taiwan feature prominently. Official assessments continue to note shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army landing and sustainment capacity for a full-scale operation this year. A sudden diplomatic rupture or undetected force posture shift before month-end could still influence outcomes, though such developments have historically required extended preparation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Объем
$2,159,349Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop surges, or blockade enforcement in recent weeks. Taiwan’s September 18 joint drills with missiles and attack drones, monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle, fit established patterns of routine pressure rather than imminent conflict. Beijing’s focus remains on maritime surveys, air and sea patrols, and diplomatic warnings ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, where arms sales and Taiwan feature prominently. Official assessments continue to note shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army landing and sustainment capacity for a full-scale operation this year. A sudden diplomatic rupture or undetected force posture shift before month-end could still influence outcomes, though such developments have historically required extended preparation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$2,159,349Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop surges, or blockade enforcement in recent weeks. Taiwan’s September 18 joint drills with missiles and attack drones, monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle, fit established patterns of routine pressure rather than imminent conflict. Beijing’s focus remains on maritime surveys, air and sea patrols, and diplomatic warnings ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, where arms sales and Taiwan feature prominently. Official assessments continue to note shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army landing and sustainment capacity for a full-scale operation this year. A sudden diplomatic rupture or undetected force posture shift before month-end could still influence outcomes, though such developments have historically required extended preparation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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