Traders assign a 99.7% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, because no detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, naval concentration, or other invasion indicators have appeared in the remaining days before the deadline. Beijing continues its established pattern of gray-zone coercion through routine PLA aircraft and coast guard activity around the island, alongside incremental maritime presence east of Taiwan, while prioritizing diplomatic engagement ahead of the scheduled Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan’s defense ministry and independent assessments confirm the PLA still lacks sufficient capability for a full amphibious operation, with activity focused on blockade preparations and modernization rather than imminent assault. A sudden crisis or miscalculation during the summit remains theoretically possible, though logistical and intelligence barriers render such an outcome implausible within the narrow resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
<1% вероятность
$2,160,647 Объем
$2,160,647 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
$2,160,647 Объем
$2,160,647 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.7% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, because no detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, naval concentration, or other invasion indicators have appeared in the remaining days before the deadline. Beijing continues its established pattern of gray-zone coercion through routine PLA aircraft and coast guard activity around the island, alongside incremental maritime presence east of Taiwan, while prioritizing diplomatic engagement ahead of the scheduled Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan’s defense ministry and independent assessments confirm the PLA still lacks sufficient capability for a full amphibious operation, with activity focused on blockade preparations and modernization rather than imminent assault. A sudden crisis or miscalculation during the summit remains theoretically possible, though logistical and intelligence barriers render such an outcome implausible within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Объем
$2,160,647Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.7% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, because no detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, naval concentration, or other invasion indicators have appeared in the remaining days before the deadline. Beijing continues its established pattern of gray-zone coercion through routine PLA aircraft and coast guard activity around the island, alongside incremental maritime presence east of Taiwan, while prioritizing diplomatic engagement ahead of the scheduled Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan’s defense ministry and independent assessments confirm the PLA still lacks sufficient capability for a full amphibious operation, with activity focused on blockade preparations and modernization rather than imminent assault. A sudden crisis or miscalculation during the summit remains theoretically possible, though logistical and intelligence barriers render such an outcome implausible within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$2,160,647Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.7% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, because no detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, naval concentration, or other invasion indicators have appeared in the remaining days before the deadline. Beijing continues its established pattern of gray-zone coercion through routine PLA aircraft and coast guard activity around the island, alongside incremental maritime presence east of Taiwan, while prioritizing diplomatic engagement ahead of the scheduled Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan’s defense ministry and independent assessments confirm the PLA still lacks sufficient capability for a full amphibious operation, with activity focused on blockade preparations and modernization rather than imminent assault. A sudden crisis or miscalculation during the summit remains theoretically possible, though logistical and intelligence barriers render such an outcome implausible within the narrow resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы