Taiwan’s defense ministry and independent analyses report that People’s Liberation Army aerial incursions into the island’s air defense identification zone have fallen sharply in 2026 to multi-year lows, while Beijing has emphasized coast-guard patrols, research vessels, and law-enforcement activity east of Taiwan. Taiwanese officials assess that the PLA still lacks the integrated amphibious, air, and sustainment capacity required for a full-scale landing, and recent live-fire drills by Taipei have incorporated drones and precision missiles without triggering corresponding Chinese mobilization. Diplomatic channels remain open ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting, and no large-scale amphibious exercises or official invasion signals have appeared in the past 30 days. These factors underpin trader consensus that an invasion by mid-2027 remains unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
8% вероятность
$450,575 Объем
$450,575 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
Да
8% вероятность
$450,575 Объем
$450,575 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s defense ministry and independent analyses report that People’s Liberation Army aerial incursions into the island’s air defense identification zone have fallen sharply in 2026 to multi-year lows, while Beijing has emphasized coast-guard patrols, research vessels, and law-enforcement activity east of Taiwan. Taiwanese officials assess that the PLA still lacks the integrated amphibious, air, and sustainment capacity required for a full-scale landing, and recent live-fire drills by Taipei have incorporated drones and precision missiles without triggering corresponding Chinese mobilization. Diplomatic channels remain open ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting, and no large-scale amphibious exercises or official invasion signals have appeared in the past 30 days. These factors underpin trader consensus that an invasion by mid-2027 remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Объем
$450,575Дата окончания
1 июл. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s defense ministry and independent analyses report that People’s Liberation Army aerial incursions into the island’s air defense identification zone have fallen sharply in 2026 to multi-year lows, while Beijing has emphasized coast-guard patrols, research vessels, and law-enforcement activity east of Taiwan. Taiwanese officials assess that the PLA still lacks the integrated amphibious, air, and sustainment capacity required for a full-scale landing, and recent live-fire drills by Taipei have incorporated drones and precision missiles without triggering corresponding Chinese mobilization. Diplomatic channels remain open ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting, and no large-scale amphibious exercises or official invasion signals have appeared in the past 30 days. These factors underpin trader consensus that an invasion by mid-2027 remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$450,575Дата окончания
1 июл. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Taiwan’s defense ministry and independent analyses report that People’s Liberation Army aerial incursions into the island’s air defense identification zone have fallen sharply in 2026 to multi-year lows, while Beijing has emphasized coast-guard patrols, research vessels, and law-enforcement activity east of Taiwan. Taiwanese officials assess that the PLA still lacks the integrated amphibious, air, and sustainment capacity required for a full-scale landing, and recent live-fire drills by Taipei have incorporated drones and precision missiles without triggering corresponding Chinese mobilization. Diplomatic channels remain open ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting, and no large-scale amphibious exercises or official invasion signals have appeared in the past 30 days. These factors underpin trader consensus that an invasion by mid-2027 remains unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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