Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
12% вероятность
$3,236,740 Объем
$3,236,740 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
12% вероятность
$3,236,740 Объем
$3,236,740 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$3,236,740Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$3,236,740Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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