The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear and below-average accumulated cyclone energy, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center data show zero hurricanes formed through mid-September—the latest such drought in the satellite era—with only weak named storms like Fay developing far from land. Historical records confirm just four mainland Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), yielding a baseline annual rate near 2–3%. Late-season formation remains possible but faces unfavorable steering patterns and cooler waters that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds (≥157 mph sustained winds). Any reversal would require an abrupt shift in atmospheric conditions or an unusually strong November system making precise landfall, both low-probability outcomes per current model consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли какой-либо ураган категории 5 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Будет ли какой-либо ураган категории 5 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Да
4% вероятность
$142,105 Объем
$142,105 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$142,105 Объем
$142,105 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear and below-average accumulated cyclone energy, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center data show zero hurricanes formed through mid-September—the latest such drought in the satellite era—with only weak named storms like Fay developing far from land. Historical records confirm just four mainland Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), yielding a baseline annual rate near 2–3%. Late-season formation remains possible but faces unfavorable steering patterns and cooler waters that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds (≥157 mph sustained winds). Any reversal would require an abrupt shift in atmospheric conditions or an unusually strong November system making precise landfall, both low-probability outcomes per current model consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Объем
$142,105Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear and below-average accumulated cyclone energy, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center data show zero hurricanes formed through mid-September—the latest such drought in the satellite era—with only weak named storms like Fay developing far from land. Historical records confirm just four mainland Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), yielding a baseline annual rate near 2–3%. Late-season formation remains possible but faces unfavorable steering patterns and cooler waters that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds (≥157 mph sustained winds). Any reversal would require an abrupt shift in atmospheric conditions or an unusually strong November system making precise landfall, both low-probability outcomes per current model consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Объем
$142,105Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear and below-average accumulated cyclone energy, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center data show zero hurricanes formed through mid-September—the latest such drought in the satellite era—with only weak named storms like Fay developing far from land. Historical records confirm just four mainland Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), yielding a baseline annual rate near 2–3%. Late-season formation remains possible but faces unfavorable steering patterns and cooler waters that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds (≥157 mph sustained winds). Any reversal would require an abrupt shift in atmospheric conditions or an unusually strong November system making precise landfall, both low-probability outcomes per current model consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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