Recent releases have propelled OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (max) to the top of MathArena with 90.7% expected performance across uncontaminated competitions, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude-Opus-5 and Claude-Fable-5.1 models at roughly 72%. This gap reflects OpenAI’s edge in scaling reasoning on fresh AIME, USAMO, and ArXivMath problems, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max additions show incremental gains but remain behind. Traders see continued frontier-model releases through year-end as the main catalyst, tempered by benchmark saturation on standard contests and slower progress on harder proof-based or research-level tasks. Key upcoming events include potential new model drops from OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI that could push scores higher before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWill any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
$119,649 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
1575
74%
1600
29%
$119,649 Объем
1575
$38,790 Объем
74%
1600
$12,254 Объем
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases have propelled OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (max) to the top of MathArena with 90.7% expected performance across uncontaminated competitions, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude-Opus-5 and Claude-Fable-5.1 models at roughly 72%. This gap reflects OpenAI’s edge in scaling reasoning on fresh AIME, USAMO, and ArXivMath problems, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max additions show incremental gains but remain behind. Traders see continued frontier-model releases through year-end as the main catalyst, tempered by benchmark saturation on standard contests and slower progress on harder proof-based or research-level tasks. Key upcoming events include potential new model drops from OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI that could push scores higher before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Объем
$119,649Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases have propelled OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (max) to the top of MathArena with 90.7% expected performance across uncontaminated competitions, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude-Opus-5 and Claude-Fable-5.1 models at roughly 72%. This gap reflects OpenAI’s edge in scaling reasoning on fresh AIME, USAMO, and ArXivMath problems, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max additions show incremental gains but remain behind. Traders see continued frontier-model releases through year-end as the main catalyst, tempered by benchmark saturation on standard contests and slower progress on harder proof-based or research-level tasks. Key upcoming events include potential new model drops from OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI that could push scores higher before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$119,649Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent releases have propelled OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (max) to the top of MathArena with 90.7% expected performance across uncontaminated competitions, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude-Opus-5 and Claude-Fable-5.1 models at roughly 72%. This gap reflects OpenAI’s edge in scaling reasoning on fresh AIME, USAMO, and ArXivMath problems, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max additions show incremental gains but remain behind. Traders see continued frontier-model releases through year-end as the main catalyst, tempered by benchmark saturation on standard contests and slower progress on harder proof-based or research-level tasks. Key upcoming events include potential new model drops from OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI that could push scores higher before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы