Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability that no NYSE market-wide circuit breaker will trigger before 2027, reflecting the low likelihood of a 7% single-day S&P 500 decline amid resilient U.S. economic growth, robust corporate earnings, and AI-driven capex supporting elevated valuations. Recent equity strength, with consensus 2026 S&P targets near 7,800–8,250 and EPS growth projected above 20% year-over-year, has kept realized volatility moderate despite stretched Shiller P/E ratios near 41 and warnings of potential late-stage AI adjustments in 2027. Key near-term catalysts include FOMC policy decisions, inflation releases, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations, yet current positioning and liquidity conditions suggest limited scope for the sharp, synchronized selloff required to breach Level 1 thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
15% вероятность
$107,726 Объем
$107,726 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
15% вероятность
$107,726 Объем
$107,726 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability that no NYSE market-wide circuit breaker will trigger before 2027, reflecting the low likelihood of a 7% single-day S&P 500 decline amid resilient U.S. economic growth, robust corporate earnings, and AI-driven capex supporting elevated valuations. Recent equity strength, with consensus 2026 S&P targets near 7,800–8,250 and EPS growth projected above 20% year-over-year, has kept realized volatility moderate despite stretched Shiller P/E ratios near 41 and warnings of potential late-stage AI adjustments in 2027. Key near-term catalysts include FOMC policy decisions, inflation releases, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations, yet current positioning and liquidity conditions suggest limited scope for the sharp, synchronized selloff required to breach Level 1 thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
Объем
$107,726Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability that no NYSE market-wide circuit breaker will trigger before 2027, reflecting the low likelihood of a 7% single-day S&P 500 decline amid resilient U.S. economic growth, robust corporate earnings, and AI-driven capex supporting elevated valuations. Recent equity strength, with consensus 2026 S&P targets near 7,800–8,250 and EPS growth projected above 20% year-over-year, has kept realized volatility moderate despite stretched Shiller P/E ratios near 41 and warnings of potential late-stage AI adjustments in 2027. Key near-term catalysts include FOMC policy decisions, inflation releases, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations, yet current positioning and liquidity conditions suggest limited scope for the sharp, synchronized selloff required to breach Level 1 thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$107,726Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability that no NYSE market-wide circuit breaker will trigger before 2027, reflecting the low likelihood of a 7% single-day S&P 500 decline amid resilient U.S. economic growth, robust corporate earnings, and AI-driven capex supporting elevated valuations. Recent equity strength, with consensus 2026 S&P targets near 7,800–8,250 and EPS growth projected above 20% year-over-year, has kept realized volatility moderate despite stretched Shiller P/E ratios near 41 and warnings of potential late-stage AI adjustments in 2027. Key near-term catalysts include FOMC policy decisions, inflation releases, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations, yet current positioning and liquidity conditions suggest limited scope for the sharp, synchronized selloff required to breach Level 1 thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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