Paul Tonko's commanding position in the NY-20 race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's repeated victories, including 61% in 2024. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat or Safe D, underscoring limited Republican viability in the Capital Region seats covering Albany, Schenectady, and parts of Saratoga. Uncontested June primaries left Tonko facing Ralph Ambrosio, whose minimal fundraising—under $30,000 through mid-2026—contrasts sharply with the incumbent's near $1 million raised. Trader consensus at over 95% for the Democrat aligns with these structural factors and historical turnout patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan shift could still influence the November 3 outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-20
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-20
$35,403 Объем
$35,403 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Пол Тонко (Д)
96%
Ральф Амброзио (Р)
4%
$35,403 Объем
$35,403 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Пол Тонко (Д)
$16,564 Объем
96%
Ральф Амброзио (Р)
$18,839 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Tonko's commanding position in the NY-20 race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's repeated victories, including 61% in 2024. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat or Safe D, underscoring limited Republican viability in the Capital Region seats covering Albany, Schenectady, and parts of Saratoga. Uncontested June primaries left Tonko facing Ralph Ambrosio, whose minimal fundraising—under $30,000 through mid-2026—contrasts sharply with the incumbent's near $1 million raised. Trader consensus at over 95% for the Democrat aligns with these structural factors and historical turnout patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan shift could still influence the November 3 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$35,403Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Tonko's commanding position in the NY-20 race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's repeated victories, including 61% in 2024. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat or Safe D, underscoring limited Republican viability in the Capital Region seats covering Albany, Schenectady, and parts of Saratoga. Uncontested June primaries left Tonko facing Ralph Ambrosio, whose minimal fundraising—under $30,000 through mid-2026—contrasts sharply with the incumbent's near $1 million raised. Trader consensus at over 95% for the Democrat aligns with these structural factors and historical turnout patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan shift could still influence the November 3 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$35,403Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Paul Tonko's commanding position in the NY-20 race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's repeated victories, including 61% in 2024. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat or Safe D, underscoring limited Republican viability in the Capital Region seats covering Albany, Schenectady, and parts of Saratoga. Uncontested June primaries left Tonko facing Ralph Ambrosio, whose minimal fundraising—under $30,000 through mid-2026—contrasts sharply with the incumbent's near $1 million raised. Trader consensus at over 95% for the Democrat aligns with these structural factors and historical turnout patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan shift could still influence the November 3 outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы