Joaquin Castro's strong position as the heavy favorite in the TX-20 House race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean in San Antonio and surrounding areas, reinforced by recent presidential and statewide voting patterns that favor Democrats by double-digit margins. As the incumbent seeking an eighth term, Castro secured his party's nomination with nearly 90 percent in the March primary, while Republican Edgardo Baez advanced unopposed but trails substantially in fundraising and lacks comparable name recognition. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the seat's structural advantages for the incumbent. A major unforeseen event such as a health issue, scandal, or extreme national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the outlook before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTX-20 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
TX-20 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$27,076 Объем
$27,076 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Хоакин Кастро (Д)
94%
Эдгардо Рафаэль Баэс (Р)
6%
$27,076 Объем
$27,076 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Хоакин Кастро (Д)
$12,383 Объем
94%
Эдгардо Рафаэль Баэс (Р)
$14,693 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joaquin Castro's strong position as the heavy favorite in the TX-20 House race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean in San Antonio and surrounding areas, reinforced by recent presidential and statewide voting patterns that favor Democrats by double-digit margins. As the incumbent seeking an eighth term, Castro secured his party's nomination with nearly 90 percent in the March primary, while Republican Edgardo Baez advanced unopposed but trails substantially in fundraising and lacks comparable name recognition. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the seat's structural advantages for the incumbent. A major unforeseen event such as a health issue, scandal, or extreme national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$27,076Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joaquin Castro's strong position as the heavy favorite in the TX-20 House race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean in San Antonio and surrounding areas, reinforced by recent presidential and statewide voting patterns that favor Democrats by double-digit margins. As the incumbent seeking an eighth term, Castro secured his party's nomination with nearly 90 percent in the March primary, while Republican Edgardo Baez advanced unopposed but trails substantially in fundraising and lacks comparable name recognition. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the seat's structural advantages for the incumbent. A major unforeseen event such as a health issue, scandal, or extreme national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$27,076Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Joaquin Castro's strong position as the heavy favorite in the TX-20 House race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean in San Antonio and surrounding areas, reinforced by recent presidential and statewide voting patterns that favor Democrats by double-digit margins. As the incumbent seeking an eighth term, Castro secured his party's nomination with nearly 90 percent in the March primary, while Republican Edgardo Baez advanced unopposed but trails substantially in fundraising and lacks comparable name recognition. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the seat's structural advantages for the incumbent. A major unforeseen event such as a health issue, scandal, or extreme national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the outlook before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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