**New Mexico's Senate race features Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Luján facing Republican Larry Marker in a contest rated Safe or Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters.** Luján's comfortable position stems from the state's partisan lean, his strong primary performance, and a substantial fundraising edge, while Marker entered as a write-in nominee with minimal resources and visibility. The August Research & Polling survey showed Luján ahead 53-38, consistent with models projecting a roughly 13-15 point Democratic margin. Market pricing across the margin buckets reflects this dynamic, with the highest probabilities clustered on Democratic victories in the mid-teens, indicating trader consensus on a solid but not overwhelming win absent major late shifts in turnout or national conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМаржа победы на выборах в Сенат Нью-Мексико
Маржа победы на выборах в Сенат Нью-Мексико
Демократ 21%+ 24%
Демократ 18-21% 22%
Демократ 15–18% 13%
Демократ 6-9% 8.6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 3%+
2%
Республиканец 0-3%
1%
Демократ 0-3%
1%
Демократ 3-6%
1%
Демократ 6-9%
9%
Демократ 9-12%
4%
Демократ 12-15%
8%
Демократ 15–18%
13%
Демократ 18-21%
22%
Демократ 21%+
24%
Демократ 21%+ 24%
Демократ 18-21% 22%
Демократ 15–18% 13%
Демократ 6-9% 8.6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 3%+
$337 Объем
2%
Республиканец 0-3%
$240 Объем
1%
Демократ 0-3%
$123 Объем
1%
Демократ 3-6%
$352 Объем
1%
Демократ 6-9%
$205 Объем
9%
Демократ 9-12%
$199 Объем
4%
Демократ 12-15%
$581 Объем
8%
Демократ 15–18%
$505 Объем
13%
Демократ 18-21%
$805 Объем
22%
Демократ 21%+
$3,765 Объем
24%
The 2026 New Mexico Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**New Mexico's Senate race features Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Luján facing Republican Larry Marker in a contest rated Safe or Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters.**
Luján's comfortable position stems from the state's partisan lean, his strong primary performance, and a substantial fundraising edge, while Marker entered as a write-in nominee with minimal resources and visibility. The August Research & Polling survey showed Luján ahead 53-38, consistent with models projecting a roughly 13-15 point Democratic margin. Market pricing across the margin buckets reflects this dynamic, with the highest probabilities clustered on Democratic victories in the mid-teens, indicating trader consensus on a solid but not overwhelming win absent major late shifts in turnout or national conditions.
The 2026 New Mexico Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 4, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Объем
$7,113Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 2:30 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 New Mexico Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**New Mexico's Senate race features Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Luján facing Republican Larry Marker in a contest rated Safe or Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters.**
Luján's comfortable position stems from the state's partisan lean, his strong primary performance, and a substantial fundraising edge, while Marker entered as a write-in nominee with minimal resources and visibility. The August Research & Polling survey showed Luján ahead 53-38, consistent with models projecting a roughly 13-15 point Democratic margin. Market pricing across the margin buckets reflects this dynamic, with the highest probabilities clustered on Democratic victories in the mid-teens, indicating trader consensus on a solid but not overwhelming win absent major late shifts in turnout or national conditions.
The 2026 New Mexico Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$7,113Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 2:30 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**New Mexico's Senate race features Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Luján facing Republican Larry Marker in a contest rated Safe or Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters.** Luján's comfortable position stems from the state's partisan lean, his strong primary performance, and a substantial fundraising edge, while Marker entered as a write-in nominee with minimal resources and visibility. The August Research & Polling survey showed Luján ahead 53-38, consistent with models projecting a roughly 13-15 point Democratic margin. Market pricing across the margin buckets reflects this dynamic, with the highest probabilities clustered on Democratic victories in the mid-teens, indicating trader consensus on a solid but not overwhelming win absent major late shifts in turnout or national conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах губернатора Нью-Мексико в 2026 году с разницей в 10%-15%?
35%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу NM-03 в 2026 году с разницей 25%-30%?
28%
Да
Выиграет ли кандидат от Демократической партии выборы в Палату представителей по округу NM-01 в 2026 году с преимуществом в 20%-25%?
28%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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