In Michigan's 8th congressional district, the race between Democratic incumbent Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican nominee Thomas J. Smith remains closely contested heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's mix of suburban Oakland County and working-class areas in the Saginaw Bay region produces narrow historical margins, with forecasters rating it Likely or Lean Democratic based on 2024 results and partisan baseline. Recent August primaries confirmed both nominees without major disruptions, while fundraising and outside spending have stayed balanced. Trader consensus around even odds between leading candidates and Democratic margins clustered in the 10-25% range reflects uncertainty over turnout among suburban voters and the broader national environment. Developments such as late polling shifts, debate performances, or economic indicators could widen the gap before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMI-08 House Election Margin of Victory
MI-08 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 15-20% 24%
Democrat 20-25% 22%
Democrat 10-15% 20%
Democrat 0-5% 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 30%+
15%
Democrat 25-30%
7%
Democrat 20-25%
22%
Democrat 15-20%
24%
Democrat 10-15%
20%
Democrat 5-10%
17%
Democrat 0-5%
18%
Republican Wins
8%
Democrat 15-20% 24%
Democrat 20-25% 22%
Democrat 10-15% 20%
Democrat 0-5% 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 30%+
$291 Объем
15%
Democrat 25-30%
$73 Объем
7%
Democrat 20-25%
$124 Объем
22%
Democrat 15-20%
$73 Объем
24%
Democrat 10-15%
$73 Объем
20%
Democrat 5-10%
$73 Объем
17%
Democrat 0-5%
$73 Объем
18%
Republican Wins
$113 Объем
8%
The 2026 MI-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In Michigan's 8th congressional district, the race between Democratic incumbent Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican nominee Thomas J. Smith remains closely contested heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's mix of suburban Oakland County and working-class areas in the Saginaw Bay region produces narrow historical margins, with forecasters rating it Likely or Lean Democratic based on 2024 results and partisan baseline. Recent August primaries confirmed both nominees without major disruptions, while fundraising and outside spending have stayed balanced. Trader consensus around even odds between leading candidates and Democratic margins clustered in the 10-25% range reflects uncertainty over turnout among suburban voters and the broader national environment. Developments such as late polling shifts, debate performances, or economic indicators could widen the gap before Election Day.
The 2026 MI-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 10, 2026, 11:39 AM ET
Объем
$893Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 10, 2026, 11:39 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MI-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In Michigan's 8th congressional district, the race between Democratic incumbent Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican nominee Thomas J. Smith remains closely contested heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's mix of suburban Oakland County and working-class areas in the Saginaw Bay region produces narrow historical margins, with forecasters rating it Likely or Lean Democratic based on 2024 results and partisan baseline. Recent August primaries confirmed both nominees without major disruptions, while fundraising and outside spending have stayed balanced. Trader consensus around even odds between leading candidates and Democratic margins clustered in the 10-25% range reflects uncertainty over turnout among suburban voters and the broader national environment. Developments such as late polling shifts, debate performances, or economic indicators could widen the gap before Election Day.
The 2026 MI-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$893Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 10, 2026, 11:39 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...In Michigan's 8th congressional district, the race between Democratic incumbent Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican nominee Thomas J. Smith remains closely contested heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's mix of suburban Oakland County and working-class areas in the Saginaw Bay region produces narrow historical margins, with forecasters rating it Likely or Lean Democratic based on 2024 results and partisan baseline. Recent August primaries confirmed both nominees without major disruptions, while fundraising and outside spending have stayed balanced. Trader consensus around even odds between leading candidates and Democratic margins clustered in the 10-25% range reflects uncertainty over turnout among suburban voters and the broader national environment. Developments such as late polling shifts, debate performances, or economic indicators could widen the gap before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу MI-07 в 2026 году с разницей в 0-3%?
21%
Да
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-09 House election by 15%-20%?
24%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-06 House election by 30%-35%?
17%
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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