Recent US-Iran diplomatic efforts, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, addressed Iran's enriched uranium stockpile through on-site down-blending under IAEA supervision rather than export or full surrender. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification gaps, denied site access, and uncertainty over stockpile size, location, and composition following prior military actions. In September 2026, the United States blocked Iran's atomic energy chief from the IAEA General Conference via sanctions mechanisms, while Iranian lawmakers called for NPT review and US officials signaled interest in resuming nuclear talks. These factors underscore persistent barriers to a public surrender agreement, including verification shortfalls and fluctuating bilateral tensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMarket prices drop sharply as Iran shows no public uranium surrender agreement
December 31 plunges to 20%18%
By late June, despite earlier reports, no public agreement by Iran to surrender enriched uranium had been confirmed, leading to a collapse in market prices for all resolution dates, reflecting widespread skepticism about a deal before deadlines.
Iran agrees to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile, likely to China
December 31 dips to 21%1%
On June 24, reports emerged that Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, possibly China, as part of ongoing negotiations with the US. This partial concession was seen as a potential step toward resolving disputes but did not fully restore market confidence.


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