Hu Jintao, now in his mid-80s, has not made a confirmed public appearance since December 2022, when he attended the funeral for Jiang Zemin. State media has since attributed his low profile to health concerns, including frailty noted during the 2022 Party Congress exit, and recent August 2026 reports describe further deterioration. He has been absent from major events such as the 2025 military parade and the 2026 Jiang Zemin centenary memorial, with only wreath-sending mentions in official condolences. Trader consensus at 95%+ for no appearance by December 31 reflects this extended pattern of minimal engagement by retired paramount leaders, combined with the short remaining timeline and lack of scheduled public events. A verifiable sighting could still occur if health stabilizes for a major funeral or symbolic gathering before year-end, though historical precedent makes such shifts unlikely.