Strong economic data and stable financial conditions underpin the 95% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. With inflation measures such as the latest CPI releases trending toward the 2% target and labor market indicators showing resilience rather than sharp deterioration, traders see little justification for an unscheduled easing outside the regular FOMC cycle. The Fed funds rate remains anchored near current levels amid steady Treasury yields and contained volatility, reflecting broad consensus that baseline forecasts favor gradual policy adjustments. Key upcoming releases, including September 2026 employment data and the December FOMC meeting, are unlikely to trigger emergency action absent major shocks. Tail risks such as a sudden systemic banking event or severe geopolitical escalation could still force an intermeeting cut, though these scenarios remain low-probability outliers priced into the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$208,964 Объем
$208,964 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$208,964 Объем
$208,964 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Strong economic data and stable financial conditions underpin the 95% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. With inflation measures such as the latest CPI releases trending toward the 2% target and labor market indicators showing resilience rather than sharp deterioration, traders see little justification for an unscheduled easing outside the regular FOMC cycle. The Fed funds rate remains anchored near current levels amid steady Treasury yields and contained volatility, reflecting broad consensus that baseline forecasts favor gradual policy adjustments. Key upcoming releases, including September 2026 employment data and the December FOMC meeting, are unlikely to trigger emergency action absent major shocks. Tail risks such as a sudden systemic banking event or severe geopolitical escalation could still force an intermeeting cut, though these scenarios remain low-probability outliers priced into the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Объем
$208,964Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Strong economic data and stable financial conditions underpin the 95% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. With inflation measures such as the latest CPI releases trending toward the 2% target and labor market indicators showing resilience rather than sharp deterioration, traders see little justification for an unscheduled easing outside the regular FOMC cycle. The Fed funds rate remains anchored near current levels amid steady Treasury yields and contained volatility, reflecting broad consensus that baseline forecasts favor gradual policy adjustments. Key upcoming releases, including September 2026 employment data and the December FOMC meeting, are unlikely to trigger emergency action absent major shocks. Tail risks such as a sudden systemic banking event or severe geopolitical escalation could still force an intermeeting cut, though these scenarios remain low-probability outliers priced into the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Объем
$208,964Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Strong economic data and stable financial conditions underpin the 95% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. With inflation measures such as the latest CPI releases trending toward the 2% target and labor market indicators showing resilience rather than sharp deterioration, traders see little justification for an unscheduled easing outside the regular FOMC cycle. The Fed funds rate remains anchored near current levels amid steady Treasury yields and contained volatility, reflecting broad consensus that baseline forecasts favor gradual policy adjustments. Key upcoming releases, including September 2026 employment data and the December FOMC meeting, are unlikely to trigger emergency action absent major shocks. Tail risks such as a sudden systemic banking event or severe geopolitical escalation could still force an intermeeting cut, though these scenarios remain low-probability outliers priced into the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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