**Trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the current policy stance and economic backdrop.** The federal funds target range remains at 3.50-3.75% as of September 2026, with the effective rate near 3.63%, amid headline PCE inflation holding at 3.7% and core at 3.3%—well above the 2% goal—driven by energy shocks and supply constraints. The labor market shows resilience, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, providing little justification for urgent easing. Official projections and recent FOMC communications point to steady or potentially tighter policy through year-end, with cuts not anticipated until 2027. While an unforeseen financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still trigger action, the absence of such signals underpins the strong conviction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$208,964 Объем
$208,964 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$208,964 Объем
$208,964 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.**Trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the current policy stance and economic backdrop.** The federal funds target range remains at 3.50-3.75% as of September 2026, with the effective rate near 3.63%, amid headline PCE inflation holding at 3.7% and core at 3.3%—well above the 2% goal—driven by energy shocks and supply constraints. The labor market shows resilience, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, providing little justification for urgent easing. Official projections and recent FOMC communications point to steady or potentially tighter policy through year-end, with cuts not anticipated until 2027.
While an unforeseen financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still trigger action, the absence of such signals underpins the strong conviction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Объем
$208,964Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.**Trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the current policy stance and economic backdrop.** The federal funds target range remains at 3.50-3.75% as of September 2026, with the effective rate near 3.63%, amid headline PCE inflation holding at 3.7% and core at 3.3%—well above the 2% goal—driven by energy shocks and supply constraints. The labor market shows resilience, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, providing little justification for urgent easing. Official projections and recent FOMC communications point to steady or potentially tighter policy through year-end, with cuts not anticipated until 2027.
While an unforeseen financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still trigger action, the absence of such signals underpins the strong conviction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Объем
$208,964Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the current policy stance and economic backdrop.** The federal funds target range remains at 3.50-3.75% as of September 2026, with the effective rate near 3.63%, amid headline PCE inflation holding at 3.7% and core at 3.3%—well above the 2% goal—driven by energy shocks and supply constraints. The labor market shows resilience, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, providing little justification for urgent easing. Official projections and recent FOMC communications point to steady or potentially tighter policy through year-end, with cuts not anticipated until 2027. While an unforeseen financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still trigger action, the absence of such signals underpins the strong conviction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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