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icon for Решение ФРС в октябре?
Экономика·Fed

Решение ФРС в октябре?

icon for Решение ФРС в октябре?
Экономика·Fed

Решение ФРС в октябре?

окт. 28

дек. 9

янв. 27, 2027

окт. 28

дек. 9

янв. 27, 2027

Повышение на 25 б.п. 53%

Без изменений 47%

Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%

Снижение на 25 б.п. <1%

Polymarket

$9,165,786 Объем

Повышение на 25 б.п. 53%

Без изменений 47%

Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%

Снижение на 25 б.п. <1%

Polymarket

$9,165,786 Объем

Снижение на 50+ б.п.

$1,359,449 Объем

<1%

Снижение на 25 б.п.

$1,803,151 Объем

1%

Без изменений

$2,403,368 Объем

47%

Повышение на 25 б.п.

$2,271,881 Объем

53%

Повышение на 50+ б.п.

$1,328,270 Объем

1%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish signals from the September FOMC meeting, including the 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and updated dot plot showing most officials expecting at least one additional increase by year-end, underpin the near-even odds for the October 28 decision. Persistent inflation pressures, with August headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and limited core progress, have reinforced trader focus on timely return to the 2% target, while solid August payrolls of 162,000 and 4.1% unemployment support a resilient economy. The tight 52.5% implied probability for a further 25-basis-point rise versus 46.5% for no change reflects debate over data timing ahead of the next CPI release and potential election optics, with markets pricing limited scope for larger moves.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$9,165,786
Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish signals from the September FOMC meeting, including the 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and updated dot plot showing most officials expecting at least one additional increase by year-end, underpin the near-even odds for the October 28 decision. Persistent inflation pressures, with August headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and limited core progress, have reinforced trader focus on timely return to the 2% target, while solid August payrolls of 162,000 and 4.1% unemployment support a resilient economy. The tight 52.5% implied probability for a further 25-basis-point rise versus 46.5% for no change reflects debate over data timing ahead of the next CPI release and potential election optics, with markets pricing limited scope for larger moves.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$9,165,786
Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...

Связанные

icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

68%
icon for Будет ли верхняя граница целевой ставки по федеральным фондам составлять 4,25% на конец 2026 года?

Будет ли верхняя граница целевой ставки по федеральным фондам составлять 4,25% на конец 2026 года?

53%
Да
icon for Достигнет ли верхняя граница ставки ФРС 4,25% или выше до 2027 года?

Достигнет ли верхняя граница ставки ФРС 4,25% или выше до 2027 года?

82%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Решение ФРС в октябре?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 5 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Повышение на 25 б.п.» с 53%, за ним следует «Без изменений» с 47%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 53¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 53%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Решение ФРС в октябре?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $9.2 million с момента запуска рынка Jun 17, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Решение ФРС в октябре?», просмотри 5 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Решение ФРС в октябре?» — «Повышение на 25 б.п.» с 53%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 53%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Без изменений» с 47%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Решение ФРС в октябре?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.