Derek Tran, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November 3 general election for California's 45th House district. Tran holds a substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $4 million raised compared to Vo's roughly $500,000, and benefits from a Democratic voter registration advantage in the district spanning parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Independent forecasters rate the race as likely or lean Democratic. These factors, combined with the absence of major late-cycle shifts, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. The general election remains several weeks away, leaving room for standard campaign dynamics to influence final turnout and margins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-45 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-45 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$35,629 Объем
$35,629 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Дерек Тран (Д)
90%
Чуонг Во (Р)
9%
$35,629 Объем
$35,629 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Дерек Тран (Д)
$19,878 Объем
90%
Чуонг Во (Р)
$15,751 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Derek Tran, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November 3 general election for California's 45th House district. Tran holds a substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $4 million raised compared to Vo's roughly $500,000, and benefits from a Democratic voter registration advantage in the district spanning parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Independent forecasters rate the race as likely or lean Democratic. These factors, combined with the absence of major late-cycle shifts, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. The general election remains several weeks away, leaving room for standard campaign dynamics to influence final turnout and margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Объем
$35,629Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Derek Tran, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November 3 general election for California's 45th House district. Tran holds a substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $4 million raised compared to Vo's roughly $500,000, and benefits from a Democratic voter registration advantage in the district spanning parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Independent forecasters rate the race as likely or lean Democratic. These factors, combined with the absence of major late-cycle shifts, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. The general election remains several weeks away, leaving room for standard campaign dynamics to influence final turnout and margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$35,629Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Derek Tran, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November 3 general election for California's 45th House district. Tran holds a substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $4 million raised compared to Vo's roughly $500,000, and benefits from a Democratic voter registration advantage in the district spanning parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Independent forecasters rate the race as likely or lean Democratic. These factors, combined with the absence of major late-cycle shifts, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. The general election remains several weeks away, leaving room for standard campaign dynamics to influence final turnout and margins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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