The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the CA-04 House race because redistricting under Proposition 50 produced a district with a clear Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Longtime incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while Republican candidates failed to reach the November 3 general election ballot. Thompson's consistent prior margins above 66 percent, strong fundraising, and institutional endorsements further reinforce trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or facing disqualifying developments before Election Day, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$13,721 Объем
$13,721 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
96%
Республиканская партия
3%
$13,721 Объем
$13,721 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$5,915 Объем
96%
Республиканская партия
$7,806 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the CA-04 House race because redistricting under Proposition 50 produced a district with a clear Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Longtime incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while Republican candidates failed to reach the November 3 general election ballot. Thompson's consistent prior margins above 66 percent, strong fundraising, and institutional endorsements further reinforce trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or facing disqualifying developments before Election Day, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$13,721Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the CA-04 House race because redistricting under Proposition 50 produced a district with a clear Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Longtime incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while Republican candidates failed to reach the November 3 general election ballot. Thompson's consistent prior margins above 66 percent, strong fundraising, and institutional endorsements further reinforce trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or facing disqualifying developments before Election Day, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$13,721Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the CA-04 House race because redistricting under Proposition 50 produced a district with a clear Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Longtime incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while Republican candidates failed to reach the November 3 general election ballot. Thompson's consistent prior margins above 66 percent, strong fundraising, and institutional endorsements further reinforce trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or facing disqualifying developments before Election Day, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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