Recent polls place Lula near 39% in the first round against Flávio Bolsonaro at 36%, a statistical tie reflecting Brazil’s polarized electorate split by social programs such as Bolsa Familia, economic performance, and institutional disputes. Traders price the 41-44% and 44%+ buckets highest because the incumbent’s core support among lower-income voters remains stable, reinforced by the recent 15% Bolsa Familia increase announced in mid-September. Tight margins also stem from fragmented right-wing alternatives and undecided voters near 10%, with the October 4 first-round outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any late shifts in rejection rates or approval of the Lula administration, which hovers near 48% approval and 50% disapproval.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено44%+ 45%
41-44% 42%
38–41% 8%
35-38% 3.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 окт. 2026 г.
<35%
1%
35-38%
4%
38–41%
8%
41-44%
42%
44%+
45%
44%+ 45%
41-44% 42%
38–41% 8%
35-38% 3.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 окт. 2026 г.
<35%
$485 Объем
1%
35-38%
$618 Объем
4%
38–41%
$1,180 Объем
8%
41-44%
$1,624 Объем
42%
44%+
$2,358 Объем
45%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls place Lula near 39% in the first round against Flávio Bolsonaro at 36%, a statistical tie reflecting Brazil’s polarized electorate split by social programs such as Bolsa Familia, economic performance, and institutional disputes. Traders price the 41-44% and 44%+ buckets highest because the incumbent’s core support among lower-income voters remains stable, reinforced by the recent 15% Bolsa Familia increase announced in mid-September. Tight margins also stem from fragmented right-wing alternatives and undecided voters near 10%, with the October 4 first-round outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any late shifts in rejection rates or approval of the Lula administration, which hovers near 48% approval and 50% disapproval.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Объем
$6,266Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls place Lula near 39% in the first round against Flávio Bolsonaro at 36%, a statistical tie reflecting Brazil’s polarized electorate split by social programs such as Bolsa Familia, economic performance, and institutional disputes. Traders price the 41-44% and 44%+ buckets highest because the incumbent’s core support among lower-income voters remains stable, reinforced by the recent 15% Bolsa Familia increase announced in mid-September. Tight margins also stem from fragmented right-wing alternatives and undecided voters near 10%, with the October 4 first-round outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any late shifts in rejection rates or approval of the Lula administration, which hovers near 48% approval and 50% disapproval.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$6,266Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place Lula near 39% in the first round against Flávio Bolsonaro at 36%, a statistical tie reflecting Brazil’s polarized electorate split by social programs such as Bolsa Familia, economic performance, and institutional disputes. Traders price the 41-44% and 44%+ buckets highest because the incumbent’s core support among lower-income voters remains stable, reinforced by the recent 15% Bolsa Familia increase announced in mid-September. Tight margins also stem from fragmented right-wing alternatives and undecided voters near 10%, with the October 4 first-round outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any late shifts in rejection rates or approval of the Lula administration, which hovers near 48% approval and 50% disapproval.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Наберёт ли Флавио Болсонару 39% или более действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии в 2026 году?
86%
Да
Получит ли Ренан Сантос от 2% до 4% действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
40%
Да
Получит ли Аугусто Кури от 2% до 4% действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии в 2026 году?
41%
Да
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