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icon for AZ-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Промежуточные выборы

AZ-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

icon for AZ-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Промежуточные выборы

AZ-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

Polymarket
НОВОЕ
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Эли Крейн (Р)

$2,134 Объем

69%

Джонатан Нез (Д)

$1,474 Объем

30%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Eli Crane holds a clear edge in the AZ-02 race as the Republican incumbent in a district with an R+7 partisan lean that includes rural northeastern Arizona and substantial tribal lands. Recent polling from August shows Crane ahead by margins of 2 to 11 points, consistent with his 2024 general-election performance and stronger fundraising totals exceeding $9 million compared with Nez’s roughly $3.5 million. Nez, the former Navajo Nation president and 2024 nominee, benefits from high name recognition and targeted outreach to the district’s 20% Native American population on issues such as Colorado River water shortages and rural infrastructure. Crane’s decision to skip a September 10 Clean Elections forum gave Nez a solo platform but has not shifted the overall positioning. Most independent forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican, aligning with the current trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$3,608
Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Eli Crane holds a clear edge in the AZ-02 race as the Republican incumbent in a district with an R+7 partisan lean that includes rural northeastern Arizona and substantial tribal lands. Recent polling from August shows Crane ahead by margins of 2 to 11 points, consistent with his 2024 general-election performance and stronger fundraising totals exceeding $9 million compared with Nez’s roughly $3.5 million. Nez, the former Navajo Nation president and 2024 nominee, benefits from high name recognition and targeted outreach to the district’s 20% Native American population on issues such as Colorado River water shortages and rural infrastructure. Crane’s decision to skip a September 10 Clean Elections forum gave Nez a solo platform but has not shifted the overall positioning. Most independent forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican, aligning with the current trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$3,608
Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...

Связанные

icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу AZ-06?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу AZ-06?

83%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу AZ-01?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу AZ-01?

72%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей от округа AZ-03?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей от округа AZ-03?

98%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«AZ-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Эли Крейн (Р)» с 69%, за ним следует «Джонатан Нез (Д)» с 30%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 69¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 69%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«AZ-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Dec 16, 2025. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «AZ-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «AZ-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — «Эли Крейн (Р)» с 69%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 69%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Джонатан Нез (Д)» с 30%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «AZ-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.