The near-certain 98.9% market-implied probability against a magnitude 10 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the established geophysical consensus, documented by the USGS, that no fault on Earth is long enough to produce such an event. Earthquake magnitude scales directly with rupture length and area, and the longest known subduction zone segments have generated a historical maximum of 9.5, as in the 1960 Chile quake. Recent seismic monitoring through September 2026 shows no activity approaching these thresholds, consistent with typical global patterns of infrequent great earthquakes. While model uncertainties or rare revisions in magnitude estimation could theoretically arise, the physical barriers make any shift in outcome highly improbable before the 2027 cutoff.