Russian forces have conducted sustained offensive operations across the Donetsk axis in 2026, with Vodianske in the Dobropillia area previously reported heavily damaged amid earlier advances. Recent Ukrainian counteroffensives under Operation Vivaldi have reclaimed dozens of square kilometers near Lyman, including villages such as Shandryholove and Derylove, according to the 3rd Army Corps and corroborated by mapping projects. ISW assessments indicate Russian territorial gains year-to-date remain limited and overstated in official claims, while Ukrainian forces have liberated additional settlements. Market pricing reflects these dynamics, with traders assigning lower probability to near-term capture by late September amid active Ukrainian pressure and higher odds by year-end depending on whether Russian units can consolidate control of the designated intersection per ISW criteria. Ongoing drone strikes, artillery exchanges, and force rotations in the sector remain key variables.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Rússia vai capturar Vodianske por...?
A Rússia vai capturar Vodianske por...?
$132,559 Vol.
30 set 2026
September 30
5%
December 31
23%
$132,559 Vol.
September 30
$53,816 Vol.
5%
December 31
$78,743 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted sustained offensive operations across the Donetsk axis in 2026, with Vodianske in the Dobropillia area previously reported heavily damaged amid earlier advances. Recent Ukrainian counteroffensives under Operation Vivaldi have reclaimed dozens of square kilometers near Lyman, including villages such as Shandryholove and Derylove, according to the 3rd Army Corps and corroborated by mapping projects. ISW assessments indicate Russian territorial gains year-to-date remain limited and overstated in official claims, while Ukrainian forces have liberated additional settlements. Market pricing reflects these dynamics, with traders assigning lower probability to near-term capture by late September amid active Ukrainian pressure and higher odds by year-end depending on whether Russian units can consolidate control of the designated intersection per ISW criteria. Ongoing drone strikes, artillery exchanges, and force rotations in the sector remain key variables.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$132,559Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted sustained offensive operations across the Donetsk axis in 2026, with Vodianske in the Dobropillia area previously reported heavily damaged amid earlier advances. Recent Ukrainian counteroffensives under Operation Vivaldi have reclaimed dozens of square kilometers near Lyman, including villages such as Shandryholove and Derylove, according to the 3rd Army Corps and corroborated by mapping projects. ISW assessments indicate Russian territorial gains year-to-date remain limited and overstated in official claims, while Ukrainian forces have liberated additional settlements. Market pricing reflects these dynamics, with traders assigning lower probability to near-term capture by late September amid active Ukrainian pressure and higher odds by year-end depending on whether Russian units can consolidate control of the designated intersection per ISW criteria. Ongoing drone strikes, artillery exchanges, and force rotations in the sector remain key variables.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$132,559Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted sustained offensive operations across the Donetsk axis in 2026, with Vodianske in the Dobropillia area previously reported heavily damaged amid earlier advances. Recent Ukrainian counteroffensives under Operation Vivaldi have reclaimed dozens of square kilometers near Lyman, including villages such as Shandryholove and Derylove, according to the 3rd Army Corps and corroborated by mapping projects. ISW assessments indicate Russian territorial gains year-to-date remain limited and overstated in official claims, while Ukrainian forces have liberated additional settlements. Market pricing reflects these dynamics, with traders assigning lower probability to near-term capture by late September amid active Ukrainian pressure and higher odds by year-end depending on whether Russian units can consolidate control of the designated intersection per ISW criteria. Ongoing drone strikes, artillery exchanges, and force rotations in the sector remain key variables.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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