Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense 2026 report assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint command capacity for a full-scale invasion, with such capabilities more likely after 2030. Recent senior military purges have further disrupted PLA readiness and coordination. Cross-strait activity has centered on gray-zone measures, including coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, routine combat readiness drills, and reduced but persistent air incursions, rather than the large-scale mobilization or amphibious exercises that would signal imminent offensive intent. Traders therefore price the near-term risk of a military offensive aimed at territorial control as low through mid-2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
8% chance
$450,575 Vol.
$450,575 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Sim
8% chance
$450,575 Vol.
$450,575 Vol.
30 jun 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense 2026 report assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint command capacity for a full-scale invasion, with such capabilities more likely after 2030. Recent senior military purges have further disrupted PLA readiness and coordination. Cross-strait activity has centered on gray-zone measures, including coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, routine combat readiness drills, and reduced but persistent air incursions, rather than the large-scale mobilization or amphibious exercises that would signal imminent offensive intent. Traders therefore price the near-term risk of a military offensive aimed at territorial control as low through mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$450,575Data de Término
1 jul 2027Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense 2026 report assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint command capacity for a full-scale invasion, with such capabilities more likely after 2030. Recent senior military purges have further disrupted PLA readiness and coordination. Cross-strait activity has centered on gray-zone measures, including coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, routine combat readiness drills, and reduced but persistent air incursions, rather than the large-scale mobilization or amphibious exercises that would signal imminent offensive intent. Traders therefore price the near-term risk of a military offensive aimed at territorial control as low through mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$450,575Data de Término
1 jul 2027Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense 2026 report assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint command capacity for a full-scale invasion, with such capabilities more likely after 2030. Recent senior military purges have further disrupted PLA readiness and coordination. Cross-strait activity has centered on gray-zone measures, including coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, routine combat readiness drills, and reduced but persistent air incursions, rather than the large-scale mobilization or amphibious exercises that would signal imminent offensive intent. Traders therefore price the near-term risk of a military offensive aimed at territorial control as low through mid-2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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