OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation anchor trader sentiment around the $1.5–2.0 trillion range, where the two leading buckets hold 40.4% combined implied probability. The March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, plus ChatGPT’s 900 million weekly users, underscore the revenue trajectory and infrastructure commitments supporting higher pricing. Yet CFO Sarah Friar’s August signals of a 2027 debut—citing compliance and $600 billion capex needs—along with secondary-market marks near $475–894 billion and SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility introduce downside risks that keep the distribution relatively flat across mid-to-high buckets. Anthropic’s parallel filing adds sequencing uncertainty that could calibrate final pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$1.75T–$2.0T 22%
$1.5T–$1.75T 18.9%
$2.5T+ 15.8%
$2.25T–$2.5T 10.4%
$131,160 Vol.
$131,160 Vol.
30 jun 2027
<$1T
6%
$1.0T–$1.25T
10%
$1.25T–$1.5T
10%
$1.5T–$1.75T
19%
$1.75T–$2.0T
22%
$2.0T–$2.25T
5%
$2.25T–$2.5T
10%
$2.5T+
16%
$1.75T–$2.0T 22%
$1.5T–$1.75T 18.9%
$2.5T+ 15.8%
$2.25T–$2.5T 10.4%
$131,160 Vol.
$131,160 Vol.
30 jun 2027
<$1T
$18,922 Vol.
6%
$1.0T–$1.25T
$14,064 Vol.
10%
$1.25T–$1.5T
$7,448 Vol.
10%
$1.5T–$1.75T
$7,293 Vol.
19%
$1.75T–$2.0T
$13,600 Vol.
22%
$2.0T–$2.25T
$2,616 Vol.
5%
$2.25T–$2.5T
$8,294 Vol.
10%
$2.5T+
$58,924 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation anchor trader sentiment around the $1.5–2.0 trillion range, where the two leading buckets hold 40.4% combined implied probability. The March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, plus ChatGPT’s 900 million weekly users, underscore the revenue trajectory and infrastructure commitments supporting higher pricing. Yet CFO Sarah Friar’s August signals of a 2027 debut—citing compliance and $600 billion capex needs—along with secondary-market marks near $475–894 billion and SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility introduce downside risks that keep the distribution relatively flat across mid-to-high buckets. Anthropic’s parallel filing adds sequencing uncertainty that could calibrate final pricing.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$131,160Data de Término
1 jul 2027Mercado Aberto
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation anchor trader sentiment around the $1.5–2.0 trillion range, where the two leading buckets hold 40.4% combined implied probability. The March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, plus ChatGPT’s 900 million weekly users, underscore the revenue trajectory and infrastructure commitments supporting higher pricing. Yet CFO Sarah Friar’s August signals of a 2027 debut—citing compliance and $600 billion capex needs—along with secondary-market marks near $475–894 billion and SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility introduce downside risks that keep the distribution relatively flat across mid-to-high buckets. Anthropic’s parallel filing adds sequencing uncertainty that could calibrate final pricing.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$131,160Data de Término
1 jul 2027Mercado Aberto
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation anchor trader sentiment around the $1.5–2.0 trillion range, where the two leading buckets hold 40.4% combined implied probability. The March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, plus ChatGPT’s 900 million weekly users, underscore the revenue trajectory and infrastructure commitments supporting higher pricing. Yet CFO Sarah Friar’s August signals of a 2027 debut—citing compliance and $600 billion capex needs—along with secondary-market marks near $475–894 billion and SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility introduce downside risks that keep the distribution relatively flat across mid-to-high buckets. Anthropic’s parallel filing adds sequencing uncertainty that could calibrate final pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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