Traders assign near-certain probability against an early presidential resignation because such departures remain historically rare outside of extraordinary circumstances, with no public statements, party pressures, or institutional signals indicating otherwise through the current term. Incumbents facing standard legislative and legal challenges typically complete their full terms, and available evidence shows consistent commitment to serving out the scheduled period ending in 2029. The market consensus aligns with base rates from prior administrations. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include abrupt health events requiring medical incapacity declarations, major legal developments triggering resignation, or unforeseen personal factors, though these would need to overcome significant structural and political barriers.