Claudia Tenney’s incumbency in New York’s solidly Republican 24th district underpins the current trader consensus, reinforced by her prior victories by margins exceeding 30 points and the Cook Political Report’s “solid Republican” rating. Unopposed in the June 2026 Republican primary, Tenney maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million in cash on hand, while Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, an Afghanistan veteran and former VA employee, advanced from her primary but faces structural barriers in a district spanning 14 counties along Lake Ontario. The implied probability aligns with historical base rates for incumbent re-election in comparable seats. Late national shifts in voter turnout, major campaign finance surprises, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks before the November 3 general election represent the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do NY-24
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do NY-24
$20,585 Vol.
$20,585 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Claudia Tenney (R)
93%
Alissa Ellman (D)
9%
$20,585 Vol.
$20,585 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Claudia Tenney (R)
$10,946 Vol.
93%
Alissa Ellman (D)
$9,639 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Claudia Tenney’s incumbency in New York’s solidly Republican 24th district underpins the current trader consensus, reinforced by her prior victories by margins exceeding 30 points and the Cook Political Report’s “solid Republican” rating. Unopposed in the June 2026 Republican primary, Tenney maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million in cash on hand, while Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, an Afghanistan veteran and former VA employee, advanced from her primary but faces structural barriers in a district spanning 14 counties along Lake Ontario. The implied probability aligns with historical base rates for incumbent re-election in comparable seats. Late national shifts in voter turnout, major campaign finance surprises, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks before the November 3 general election represent the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$20,585Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Claudia Tenney’s incumbency in New York’s solidly Republican 24th district underpins the current trader consensus, reinforced by her prior victories by margins exceeding 30 points and the Cook Political Report’s “solid Republican” rating. Unopposed in the June 2026 Republican primary, Tenney maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million in cash on hand, while Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, an Afghanistan veteran and former VA employee, advanced from her primary but faces structural barriers in a district spanning 14 counties along Lake Ontario. The implied probability aligns with historical base rates for incumbent re-election in comparable seats. Late national shifts in voter turnout, major campaign finance surprises, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks before the November 3 general election represent the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,585Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Claudia Tenney’s incumbency in New York’s solidly Republican 24th district underpins the current trader consensus, reinforced by her prior victories by margins exceeding 30 points and the Cook Political Report’s “solid Republican” rating. Unopposed in the June 2026 Republican primary, Tenney maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million in cash on hand, while Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, an Afghanistan veteran and former VA employee, advanced from her primary but faces structural barriers in a district spanning 14 counties along Lake Ontario. The implied probability aligns with historical base rates for incumbent re-election in comparable seats. Late national shifts in voter turnout, major campaign finance surprises, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks before the November 3 general election represent the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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