Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a significant structural edge in New York’s 18th congressional district, a mid-Hudson Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 that nevertheless supported Donald Trump by 2.5 points in 2024. Ryan’s strong fundraising, name recognition from prior county executive service, and uncontested Democratic primary have consolidated support, while Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer faces limited resources and visibility. Recent polling from July 2026 showed Ryan ahead by double digits, aligning with forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus in the margin market clusters around double-digit Democratic victories because the district’s underlying partisan balance and Ryan’s incumbency have historically produced comfortable wins absent major national shifts. Factors that could widen or narrow the margin include midterm turnout patterns, any late-cycle national economic or policy developments affecting suburban and exurban voters, or unexpected campaign events before November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDemocrat 20-25% 19%
Democrat 25-30% 17%
Democrat 15-20% 16%
Democrat 10-15% 11%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrat 35%+
7%
Democrat 30-35%
6%
Democrat 25-30%
17%
Democrat 20-25%
24%
Democrat 15-20%
16%
Democrat 10-15%
11%
Democrat 5-10%
5%
Democrat 0-5%
4%
Republican Wins
6%
Democrat 20-25% 19%
Democrat 25-30% 17%
Democrat 15-20% 16%
Democrat 10-15% 11%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrat 35%+
$173 Vol.
7%
Democrat 30-35%
$162 Vol.
6%
Democrat 25-30%
$1,057 Vol.
17%
Democrat 20-25%
$431 Vol.
24%
Democrat 15-20%
$338 Vol.
16%
Democrat 10-15%
$594 Vol.
11%
Democrat 5-10%
$298 Vol.
5%
Democrat 0-5%
$215 Vol.
4%
Republican Wins
$244 Vol.
6%
The 2026 NY-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a significant structural edge in New York’s 18th congressional district, a mid-Hudson Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 that nevertheless supported Donald Trump by 2.5 points in 2024. Ryan’s strong fundraising, name recognition from prior county executive service, and uncontested Democratic primary have consolidated support, while Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer faces limited resources and visibility. Recent polling from July 2026 showed Ryan ahead by double digits, aligning with forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus in the margin market clusters around double-digit Democratic victories because the district’s underlying partisan balance and Ryan’s incumbency have historically produced comfortable wins absent major national shifts. Factors that could widen or narrow the margin include midterm turnout patterns, any late-cycle national economic or policy developments affecting suburban and exurban voters, or unexpected campaign events before November 3.
The 2026 NY-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,512Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NY-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a significant structural edge in New York’s 18th congressional district, a mid-Hudson Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 that nevertheless supported Donald Trump by 2.5 points in 2024. Ryan’s strong fundraising, name recognition from prior county executive service, and uncontested Democratic primary have consolidated support, while Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer faces limited resources and visibility. Recent polling from July 2026 showed Ryan ahead by double digits, aligning with forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus in the margin market clusters around double-digit Democratic victories because the district’s underlying partisan balance and Ryan’s incumbency have historically produced comfortable wins absent major national shifts. Factors that could widen or narrow the margin include midterm turnout patterns, any late-cycle national economic or policy developments affecting suburban and exurban voters, or unexpected campaign events before November 3.
The 2026 NY-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,512Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a significant structural edge in New York’s 18th congressional district, a mid-Hudson Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 that nevertheless supported Donald Trump by 2.5 points in 2024. Ryan’s strong fundraising, name recognition from prior county executive service, and uncontested Democratic primary have consolidated support, while Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer faces limited resources and visibility. Recent polling from July 2026 showed Ryan ahead by double digits, aligning with forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus in the margin market clusters around double-digit Democratic victories because the district’s underlying partisan balance and Ryan’s incumbency have historically produced comfortable wins absent major national shifts. Factors that could widen or narrow the margin include midterm turnout patterns, any late-cycle national economic or policy developments affecting suburban and exurban voters, or unexpected campaign events before November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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