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icon for Vencedor da Mulka By-Election
Mundo·Austrália

Vencedor da Mulka By-Election

icon for Vencedor da Mulka By-Election
Mundo·Austrália

Vencedor da Mulka By-Election

Polymarket
NOVO
Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Yiwarr McGrath

Yiwarr McGrath

$1,882 Vol.

96%

icon for Andrew Blamey

Andrew Blamey

$851 Vol.

1%

A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).Yiwarr McGrath holds a commanding lead in the Mulka by-election market following his late-August preselection as the Territory Labor candidate to replace independent incumbent Yiŋiya Mark Guyula, who resigned in protest over Country Liberal Party government policies. As a Yolŋu registered nurse and former NT Young Australian of the Year from Galiwin'ku with strong community ties, McGrath's profile aligns with the electorate's emphasis on local representation, healthcare access, and Yolŋu-led decision-making in this remote Arnhem Land seat. The short campaign period before the September 12 vote has limited opportunities for rivals, including independent Andrew Blamey, to build momentum. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages while acknowledging that high independent support in prior contests or unexpected preference flows could still alter the outcome.

A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).
Volume
$2,733
Data de Término
12 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://ntec.nt.gov.au/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).Yiwarr McGrath holds a commanding lead in the Mulka by-election market following his late-August preselection as the Territory Labor candidate to replace independent incumbent Yiŋiya Mark Guyula, who resigned in protest over Country Liberal Party government policies. As a Yolŋu registered nurse and former NT Young Australian of the Year from Galiwin'ku with strong community ties, McGrath's profile aligns with the electorate's emphasis on local representation, healthcare access, and Yolŋu-led decision-making in this remote Arnhem Land seat. The short campaign period before the September 12 vote has limited opportunities for rivals, including independent Andrew Blamey, to build momentum. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages while acknowledging that high independent support in prior contests or unexpected preference flows could still alter the outcome.

A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).
Volume
$2,733
Data de Término
12 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://ntec.nt.gov.au/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da Mulka By-Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yiwarr McGrath" at 96%, followed by "Andrew Blamey" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da Mulka By-Election" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da Mulka By-Election," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da Mulka By-Election" is "Yiwarr McGrath" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Andrew Blamey" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da Mulka By-Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.