One Nation's sustained surge in statewide primary vote polling has positioned the party as the clear frontrunner to finish third behind the Liberal–National Coalition and Labor in the November 2026 Victorian election. Multiple surveys through August show the Coalition on roughly 27–32 percent, with One Nation and Labor clustered between 22–27 percent amid widespread voter dissatisfaction over cost-of-living pressures, crime rates, and state debt. Labor's recent leadership transition has stabilized its position enough to reduce the chance it slips to third, while the Greens remain anchored around 12–13 percent with limited movement. Traders' heavy weighting toward One Nation reflects these consistent primary-vote trends and the limited path for smaller parties to overtake it.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleição Parlamentar de Victoria: 3º Lugar
Eleição Parlamentar de Victoria: 3º Lugar
One Nation 70%
Greens 12.3%
Labor 4.9%
Liberal–National <1%
$19,608 Vol.
$19,608 Vol.
28 nov 2026
One Nation
70%
Greens
12%
Labor
5%
Liberal–National
1%
Legalise Cannabis
<1%
Animal Justice
<1%
Libertarian
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
<1%
One Nation 70%
Greens 12.3%
Labor 4.9%
Liberal–National <1%
$19,608 Vol.
$19,608 Vol.
28 nov 2026
One Nation
$6,280 Vol.
70%
Greens
$339 Vol.
12%
Labor
$6,507 Vol.
5%
Liberal–National
$1,936 Vol.
1%
Legalise Cannabis
$1,312 Vol.
<1%
Animal Justice
$932 Vol.
<1%
Libertarian
$1,387 Vol.
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$914 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).One Nation's sustained surge in statewide primary vote polling has positioned the party as the clear frontrunner to finish third behind the Liberal–National Coalition and Labor in the November 2026 Victorian election. Multiple surveys through August show the Coalition on roughly 27–32 percent, with One Nation and Labor clustered between 22–27 percent amid widespread voter dissatisfaction over cost-of-living pressures, crime rates, and state debt. Labor's recent leadership transition has stabilized its position enough to reduce the chance it slips to third, while the Greens remain anchored around 12–13 percent with limited movement. Traders' heavy weighting toward One Nation reflects these consistent primary-vote trends and the limited path for smaller parties to overtake it.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$19,608Data de Término
28 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).One Nation's sustained surge in statewide primary vote polling has positioned the party as the clear frontrunner to finish third behind the Liberal–National Coalition and Labor in the November 2026 Victorian election. Multiple surveys through August show the Coalition on roughly 27–32 percent, with One Nation and Labor clustered between 22–27 percent amid widespread voter dissatisfaction over cost-of-living pressures, crime rates, and state debt. Labor's recent leadership transition has stabilized its position enough to reduce the chance it slips to third, while the Greens remain anchored around 12–13 percent with limited movement. Traders' heavy weighting toward One Nation reflects these consistent primary-vote trends and the limited path for smaller parties to overtake it.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$19,608Data de Término
28 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...One Nation's sustained surge in statewide primary vote polling has positioned the party as the clear frontrunner to finish third behind the Liberal–National Coalition and Labor in the November 2026 Victorian election. Multiple surveys through August show the Coalition on roughly 27–32 percent, with One Nation and Labor clustered between 22–27 percent amid widespread voter dissatisfaction over cost-of-living pressures, crime rates, and state debt. Labor's recent leadership transition has stabilized its position enough to reduce the chance it slips to third, while the Greens remain anchored around 12–13 percent with limited movement. Traders' heavy weighting toward One Nation reflects these consistent primary-vote trends and the limited path for smaller parties to overtake it.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions