Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters due to its consistent partisan lean and history of double-digit GOP margins. Scalise, the House Majority Leader first elected in 2008, faces limited primary opposition from Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett in the November 3 open primary, with a potential December 12 runoff. His substantial fundraising edge—over $10 million raised compared to Jewett’s under $150,000—combined with endorsements and the district’s R+19 partisan voting index, underpins the 95.9% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A late scandal, health event, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and resource factors make such shifts improbable absent major developments before November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLA-01 Vencedor da eleição da casa
LA-01 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$52,223 Vol.
$52,223 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
96%
Partido Democrata
5%
$52,223 Vol.
$52,223 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$22,399 Vol.
96%
Partido Democrata
$29,823 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters due to its consistent partisan lean and history of double-digit GOP margins. Scalise, the House Majority Leader first elected in 2008, faces limited primary opposition from Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett in the November 3 open primary, with a potential December 12 runoff. His substantial fundraising edge—over $10 million raised compared to Jewett’s under $150,000—combined with endorsements and the district’s R+19 partisan voting index, underpins the 95.9% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A late scandal, health event, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and resource factors make such shifts improbable absent major developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$52,223Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters due to its consistent partisan lean and history of double-digit GOP margins. Scalise, the House Majority Leader first elected in 2008, faces limited primary opposition from Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett in the November 3 open primary, with a potential December 12 runoff. His substantial fundraising edge—over $10 million raised compared to Jewett’s under $150,000—combined with endorsements and the district’s R+19 partisan voting index, underpins the 95.9% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A late scandal, health event, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and resource factors make such shifts improbable absent major developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,223Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters due to its consistent partisan lean and history of double-digit GOP margins. Scalise, the House Majority Leader first elected in 2008, faces limited primary opposition from Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett in the November 3 open primary, with a potential December 12 runoff. His substantial fundraising edge—over $10 million raised compared to Jewett’s under $150,000—combined with endorsements and the district’s R+19 partisan voting index, underpins the 95.9% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A late scandal, health event, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and resource factors make such shifts improbable absent major developments before November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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