Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration after releasing the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026—followed by the K2.8 Preview on its coding platform in September—has shaped trader views on a potential K4 successor. The company publicly discussed plans for K4 while seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips for training, yet no official announcement, benchmark leaks, or release timeline has emerged as of mid-September. Ongoing U.S. export-control scrutiny and accusations of distilling capabilities from models like Claude have added friction, while Moonshot continues emphasizing open-weight releases under custom licenses to maintain competitive pressure on frontier labs. With typical development cycles for models of this scale and the absence of confirmed milestones before year-end, markets reflect measured expectations around near-term availability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoKimi K4 lançado por...?
Kimi K4 lançado por...?
$17,843 Vol.
31 out 2026
31 de outubro de 2026
4%
31 de dezembro de 2026
6%
$17,843 Vol.
31 de outubro de 2026
$9,518 Vol.
4%
31 de dezembro de 2026
$8,325 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration after releasing the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026—followed by the K2.8 Preview on its coding platform in September—has shaped trader views on a potential K4 successor. The company publicly discussed plans for K4 while seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips for training, yet no official announcement, benchmark leaks, or release timeline has emerged as of mid-September. Ongoing U.S. export-control scrutiny and accusations of distilling capabilities from models like Claude have added friction, while Moonshot continues emphasizing open-weight releases under custom licenses to maintain competitive pressure on frontier labs. With typical development cycles for models of this scale and the absence of confirmed milestones before year-end, markets reflect measured expectations around near-term availability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$17,843Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration after releasing the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026—followed by the K2.8 Preview on its coding platform in September—has shaped trader views on a potential K4 successor. The company publicly discussed plans for K4 while seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips for training, yet no official announcement, benchmark leaks, or release timeline has emerged as of mid-September. Ongoing U.S. export-control scrutiny and accusations of distilling capabilities from models like Claude have added friction, while Moonshot continues emphasizing open-weight releases under custom licenses to maintain competitive pressure on frontier labs. With typical development cycles for models of this scale and the absence of confirmed milestones before year-end, markets reflect measured expectations around near-term availability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,843Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration after releasing the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026—followed by the K2.8 Preview on its coding platform in September—has shaped trader views on a potential K4 successor. The company publicly discussed plans for K4 while seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips for training, yet no official announcement, benchmark leaks, or release timeline has emerged as of mid-September. Ongoing U.S. export-control scrutiny and accusations of distilling capabilities from models like Claude have added friction, while Moonshot continues emphasizing open-weight releases under custom licenses to maintain competitive pressure on frontier labs. With typical development cycles for models of this scale and the absence of confirmed milestones before year-end, markets reflect measured expectations around near-term availability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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