Tristan Buckmaster’s public allegations of OpenAI improperly accessing his Codex session data and pressuring him to exclude Anthropic co-author Levent Alpöge from credit form the core driver of trader sentiment in this market. The NYU mathematician detailed contentious calls with OpenAI researcher Sébastien Bubeck in early September 2026, claiming the lab learned of his team’s unpublished Navier-Stokes progress, then rapidly produced a parallel proof using massive compute while offering authorship arrangements that sidelined the Anthropic employee. OpenAI has categorically denied any influence from Buckmaster’s work or user data, citing internal timelines and model isolation. No lawsuit has been filed as of mid-September, keeping implied probabilities low; traders are watching for formal complaints, additional disclosures, or settlement signals that could shift odds before year-end resolution thresholds.