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icon for Eleição para o Senado de Iowa: comparecimento às urnas
Política·Comparecimento

Eleição para o Senado de Iowa: comparecimento às urnas

icon for Eleição para o Senado de Iowa: comparecimento às urnas
Política·Comparecimento

Eleição para o Senado de Iowa: comparecimento às urnas

1.35M-1.4M 31%

1.4M-1.45M 28%

1.3M-1.35M 21%

1.2M-1.25M 12%

Polymarket
NOVO

1.35M-1.4M 31%

1.4M-1.45M 28%

1.3M-1.35M 21%

1.2M-1.25M 12%

Polymarket
NOVO

<1.2M

$210 Vol.

2%

1.2M-1.25M

$229 Vol.

12%

1.25M-1.3M

$260 Vol.

8%

1.3M-1.35M

$255 Vol.

21%

1.35M-1.4M

$426 Vol.

31%

1.4M-1.45M

$732 Vol.

28%

1.45M-1.5M

$211 Vol.

4%

1.5M-1.55M

$154 Vol.

3%

1.55M-1.6M

$396 Vol.

<1%

1.6M+

$148 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitive open-seat Iowa Senate contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters, drives elevated trader focus on turnout amid narrow polling margins and shifting national conditions. Recent surveys, including internal Democratic data showing Turek ahead among independents and broader averages placing Hinson narrowly in front, highlight the race’s sensitivity to base mobilization and no-party voter participation. Agricultural economic pressures, including tariff impacts on farm income, alongside underwater Trump approval in the state, add uncertainty over Republican enthusiasm and Democratic crossover potential. Voter roll purges of inactive registrants and concurrent gubernatorial competition further complicate projections, keeping probability mass concentrated in the 1.3M–1.45M range as campaigns intensify get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of November.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,020
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitive open-seat Iowa Senate contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters, drives elevated trader focus on turnout amid narrow polling margins and shifting national conditions. Recent surveys, including internal Democratic data showing Turek ahead among independents and broader averages placing Hinson narrowly in front, highlight the race’s sensitivity to base mobilization and no-party voter participation. Agricultural economic pressures, including tariff impacts on farm income, alongside underwater Trump approval in the state, add uncertainty over Republican enthusiasm and Democratic crossover potential. Voter roll purges of inactive registrants and concurrent gubernatorial competition further complicate projections, keeping probability mass concentrated in the 1.3M–1.45M range as campaigns intensify get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of November.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,020
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição para o Senado de Iowa: comparecimento às urnas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.35M-1.4M" at 31%, followed by "1.4M-1.45M" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição para o Senado de Iowa: comparecimento às urnas" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição para o Senado de Iowa: comparecimento às urnas," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição para o Senado de Iowa: comparecimento às urnas" is "1.35M-1.4M" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.4M-1.45M" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição para o Senado de Iowa: comparecimento às urnas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.