Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-26
Política·4 De Novembro Eleições

Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-26

icon for Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-26
Política·4 De Novembro Eleições

Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-26

Polymarket

$32,175 Vol.

Polymarket

$32,175 Vol.

Jacqui Irwin (D)

$16,426 Vol.

95%

Sam Gallucci (R)

$15,749 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding position in the California 26th District race due to the seat's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in recent redistricting and Kamala Harris's 2024 margin there. As the endorsed successor to retiring incumbent Julia Brownley, Irwin secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 41% of the vote, outpacing Republican Sam Gallucci by a wide margin. Her advantages include superior fundraising, endorsements from state Democratic leaders, and experience as a state assembly member with committee leadership roles. Forecasters rate the November general election as solidly Democratic with double-digit projected margins. A late-breaking scandal, health issue, or significant national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,175
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding position in the California 26th District race due to the seat's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in recent redistricting and Kamala Harris's 2024 margin there. As the endorsed successor to retiring incumbent Julia Brownley, Irwin secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 41% of the vote, outpacing Republican Sam Gallucci by a wide margin. Her advantages include superior fundraising, endorsements from state Democratic leaders, and experience as a state assembly member with committee leadership roles. Forecasters rate the November general election as solidly Democratic with double-digit projected margins. A late-breaking scandal, health issue, or significant national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,175
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Relacionado

icon for O Partido Democrata vencerá a cadeira da Câmara em CA-27?

O Partido Democrata vencerá a cadeira da Câmara em CA-27?

95%
Sim
icon for O Partido Democrata vai vencer a vaga da Câmara em CA-25?

O Partido Democrata vai vencer a vaga da Câmara em CA-25?

95%
Sim
icon for O Partido Democrata vencerá a vaga da Câmara pelo CA-28?

O Partido Democrata vencerá a vaga da Câmara pelo CA-28?

98%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-26" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jacqui Irwin (D)" at 95%, followed by "Sam Gallucci (R)" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-26" has generated $32.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-26," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-26" is "Jacqui Irwin (D)" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sam Gallucci (R)" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-26" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.