Mark DeSaulnier’s commanding position in the CA-10 House race stems from his incumbency in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The longtime representative advanced easily from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, while challenger Jeffrey Frese finished second at about 13 percent. Contra Costa County’s Democratic voter registration edge and consistent past margins exceeding 20 points reinforce trader consensus reflected in the 96.6 percent implied probability. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major personal or ethical issue for the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican surge altering turnout, or a significant polling reversal in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-10
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-10
$26,592 Vol.
$26,592 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mark DeSaulnier (D)
97%
Jeff Frese (R)
4%
$26,592 Vol.
$26,592 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mark DeSaulnier (D)
$13,651 Vol.
97%
Jeff Frese (R)
$12,941 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark DeSaulnier’s commanding position in the CA-10 House race stems from his incumbency in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The longtime representative advanced easily from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, while challenger Jeffrey Frese finished second at about 13 percent. Contra Costa County’s Democratic voter registration edge and consistent past margins exceeding 20 points reinforce trader consensus reflected in the 96.6 percent implied probability. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major personal or ethical issue for the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican surge altering turnout, or a significant polling reversal in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$26,592Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark DeSaulnier’s commanding position in the CA-10 House race stems from his incumbency in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The longtime representative advanced easily from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, while challenger Jeffrey Frese finished second at about 13 percent. Contra Costa County’s Democratic voter registration edge and consistent past margins exceeding 20 points reinforce trader consensus reflected in the 96.6 percent implied probability. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major personal or ethical issue for the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican surge altering turnout, or a significant polling reversal in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,592Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mark DeSaulnier’s commanding position in the CA-10 House race stems from his incumbency in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The longtime representative advanced easily from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, while challenger Jeffrey Frese finished second at about 13 percent. Contra Costa County’s Democratic voter registration edge and consistent past margins exceeding 20 points reinforce trader consensus reflected in the 96.6 percent implied probability. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major personal or ethical issue for the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican surge altering turnout, or a significant polling reversal in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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