The June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon conditions any Israeli withdrawal on verified Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) disarmament of Hezbollah across phased zones, including pilot areas in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem immediately rejected the deal as invalid and vowed to retain weapons, while implementation has since stalled amid LAF reluctance for thorough searches, Hezbollah's shift to decentralized guerrilla tactics, and disputes over verification and sequencing. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with full or even partial official disarmament by near-term deadlines viewed as unlikely absent major enforcement shifts, sustained external pressure, or Hezbollah leadership changes. Ongoing coordination talks and LAF planning for additional phases remain key variables through late 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %




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