**Traders assign an 85.7% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027.** This reflects the absence of formal action despite repeated Iranian parliamentary proposals and public statements. Iranian lawmakers introduced bills in March 2026 and raised the issue again in August 2026, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026, along with IAEA access restrictions. These measures remain under consideration or pending without passage, Guardian Council approval, or the required 90-day notice to treaty parties and the UN Security Council. Iran has suspended much of its IAEA cooperation and limited inspector access since mid-2025, leaving roughly 440 kg of 60%-enriched uranium unverified, but it has not exited the NPT itself. Official Iranian statements continue to affirm that the country does not seek nuclear weapons and frame withdrawal threats primarily as leverage amid sanctions reimposition, the September 2026 IAEA Board referral to the UN Security Council, and stalled diplomacy. Analysts note that full withdrawal would eliminate remaining NPT benefits and further isolate Tehran without clear strategic gain, consistent with past patterns where similar rhetoric did not lead to exit. Scheduled events such as ongoing bilateral talks and the NPT framework itself provide additional structural and diplomatic disincentives to rapid action before the 2027 deadline.