The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity—zero hurricanes and just six named storms through September 22—drives the 96.9% market-implied odds against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Persistent El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear that has suppressed tropical cyclone organization and intensification across the basin, consistent with NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks projecting below-normal activity through November 30. With the climatological peak passed and only weak systems like Tropical Storm Fay currently tracked far offshore, the remaining window offers limited opportunity for the rapid intensification needed to reach Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds of 157 mph or higher at landfall. Historical precedent shows such events occur roughly once every 40–50 years on average, further supporting trader consensus while leaving slim room for an anomalous late-October or November Gulf or Florida landfall if shear unexpectedly relaxes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
3% szansa
$142,105 Wol.
$142,105 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% szansa
$142,105 Wol.
$142,105 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity—zero hurricanes and just six named storms through September 22—drives the 96.9% market-implied odds against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Persistent El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear that has suppressed tropical cyclone organization and intensification across the basin, consistent with NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks projecting below-normal activity through November 30. With the climatological peak passed and only weak systems like Tropical Storm Fay currently tracked far offshore, the remaining window offers limited opportunity for the rapid intensification needed to reach Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds of 157 mph or higher at landfall. Historical precedent shows such events occur roughly once every 40–50 years on average, further supporting trader consensus while leaving slim room for an anomalous late-October or November Gulf or Florida landfall if shear unexpectedly relaxes.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$142,105Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity—zero hurricanes and just six named storms through September 22—drives the 96.9% market-implied odds against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Persistent El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear that has suppressed tropical cyclone organization and intensification across the basin, consistent with NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks projecting below-normal activity through November 30. With the climatological peak passed and only weak systems like Tropical Storm Fay currently tracked far offshore, the remaining window offers limited opportunity for the rapid intensification needed to reach Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds of 157 mph or higher at landfall. Historical precedent shows such events occur roughly once every 40–50 years on average, further supporting trader consensus while leaving slim room for an anomalous late-October or November Gulf or Florida landfall if shear unexpectedly relaxes.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Wolumen
$142,105Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity—zero hurricanes and just six named storms through September 22—drives the 96.9% market-implied odds against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Persistent El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear that has suppressed tropical cyclone organization and intensification across the basin, consistent with NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks projecting below-normal activity through November 30. With the climatological peak passed and only weak systems like Tropical Storm Fay currently tracked far offshore, the remaining window offers limited opportunity for the rapid intensification needed to reach Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds of 157 mph or higher at landfall. Historical precedent shows such events occur roughly once every 40–50 years on average, further supporting trader consensus while leaving slim room for an anomalous late-October or November Gulf or Florida landfall if shear unexpectedly relaxes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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