Recent official forecasts position UK annual GDP growth for 2026 near 1%, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting 1.1%, the IMF at 1.0%, and the OECD at 0.9%. This outlook reflects the ongoing drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which have weighed on real incomes and household spending while supporting tighter financial conditions. Quarterly data through Q2 showed 0.4% growth, with a surprise 0.4% monthly rise in July driven by services and AI-related activity, yet the broader trajectory remains subdued amid fiscal headwinds. Market-implied probabilities align closely with this consensus range, as traders price in limited upside from current momentum against persistent external pressures ahead of the October budget and further policy signals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUK Annual GDP Growth 2026
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
1-2% 88.6%
0-1% 10%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 1.3%
$83,507 Wol.
$83,507 Wol.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
1%
0-1%
10%
1-2%
89%
2-3%
1%
3-4%
1%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 88.6%
0-1% 10%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 1.3%
$83,507 Wol.
$83,507 Wol.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
$11,971 Wol.
1%
0-1%
$20,172 Wol.
10%
1-2%
$30,118 Wol.
89%
2-3%
$4,731 Wol.
1%
3-4%
$3,663 Wol.
1%
4-5%
$8,810 Wol.
<1%
5%+
$4,041 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts position UK annual GDP growth for 2026 near 1%, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting 1.1%, the IMF at 1.0%, and the OECD at 0.9%. This outlook reflects the ongoing drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which have weighed on real incomes and household spending while supporting tighter financial conditions. Quarterly data through Q2 showed 0.4% growth, with a surprise 0.4% monthly rise in July driven by services and AI-related activity, yet the broader trajectory remains subdued amid fiscal headwinds. Market-implied probabilities align closely with this consensus range, as traders price in limited upside from current momentum against persistent external pressures ahead of the October budget and further policy signals.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Wolumen
$83,507Data zakończenia
Feb 12, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts position UK annual GDP growth for 2026 near 1%, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting 1.1%, the IMF at 1.0%, and the OECD at 0.9%. This outlook reflects the ongoing drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which have weighed on real incomes and household spending while supporting tighter financial conditions. Quarterly data through Q2 showed 0.4% growth, with a surprise 0.4% monthly rise in July driven by services and AI-related activity, yet the broader trajectory remains subdued amid fiscal headwinds. Market-implied probabilities align closely with this consensus range, as traders price in limited upside from current momentum against persistent external pressures ahead of the October budget and further policy signals.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$83,507Data zakończenia
Feb 12, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Recent official forecasts position UK annual GDP growth for 2026 near 1%, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting 1.1%, the IMF at 1.0%, and the OECD at 0.9%. This outlook reflects the ongoing drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which have weighed on real incomes and household spending while supporting tighter financial conditions. Quarterly data through Q2 showed 0.4% growth, with a surprise 0.4% monthly rise in July driven by services and AI-related activity, yet the broader trajectory remains subdued amid fiscal headwinds. Market-implied probabilities align closely with this consensus range, as traders price in limited upside from current momentum against persistent external pressures ahead of the October budget and further policy signals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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